Conversation with Guan Deche to CEO Yu Chang: Oil companies’ price war may become more violent after the epidemic
“Compared to other commercial retails that have not yet returned to normal, the service industry and the gas station business have recovered quickly. I think that the industry’s most influential stage should have passed.”” Recently, Guan Deche arrived at the founder and CEO Yu Chang said in an exclusive interview with Sauna Nightnet that the gas station sales fell to 20% in the same period of the previous year due to the epidemic; but the industry has recovered quickly and most gas station salesIt has recovered to more than 50% of the same period in previous years.Guande Automobile is a well-known domestic gas station chain brand, competing with Sinopec, PetroChina and other state-owned giants, Yu Chang said that in addition to the epidemic leading to increased gas station performance, oil companies are eager to resume sales after the epidemic.Under the circumstances, the price war may proceed more violently, so that the overall profit margin of the industry is gradually squeezed.Yu Chang predicts that the future integration of the gas station market is only a matter of time. “Compared with any mature or mass-market in foreign countries, it is basically highly concentrated, and there are only a few in the industry (specific data is not recommended.There are differences) companies compete with each other.”The following is the text: Sauna Night Net: Saudi Arabia reduced the crude oil impurities in April on March 7th in the world, and the global crude oil prices fell sharply.What do you think about the impact of Saudi Arabia’s price war on the global crude oil market?Yu Chang: The decrease in oil prices on March 9 was almost a decrease from the previous trading day. It should be the largest one-day drop in the past three decades since the Gulf War.In my opinion, although for countries such as China that rely on crude oil imports, long-term low oil prices are beneficial, and may even decline further in the short-term, but the long-term continuation is unlikely.Judging from the fiscal surplus balance point of Saudi Arabia and Russia, Russia’s breakeven oil price point is around US $ 40 and Saudi Arabia is around US $ 65. If the international oil price remains at the current low level, there will even be serious deficits.For oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, the fall in oil prices caused by the Gulf War is an uncontrollable factor, but such as an increase in production is within its controllable range. If the oil prices continue to slump, it should not be what they expected.Sauna Nightnet: Before the price war in Saudi Arabia started, the new crown epidemic had already made the crude oil market quite sluggish.How long will this downturn last?Yu Chang: The impact of the Chinese epidemic on democracy has already responded to the global economy.According to the information I have learned, during the severe outbreak around the Spring Festival, China ‘s average daily crude oil demand fell by 3 million barrels, and the global daily crude oil consumption was about 1 billion barrels, meaning that in a month,As far as the global market is concerned, the average daily crude oil demand has decreased by about 3%.The international oil price dive on March 9th, I think it was also affected by another factor, namely the fear of the spread of the global capital market.At present, governments of different countries have different measures. Some domestic countries strictly control and restrict the movement of people. Some countries will adopt loose measures. Which of these measures is more effective and has less impact on the economy. The capital market is currently uncertain.Sauna Night Net: Guande Chedao is a new player in the domestic gas station market. Currently there are about 1,000 gas stations in cooperation.According to your understanding, how much does the epidemic affect gas stations?Yu Chang: The impact is indeed quite big, but it is not the most powerful ranking with aviation, hotel, tourism and other industries.According to the data I saw, during the period from the first day of the first month to the fifteenth day of the first month, the sales volume of a large number of gas stations nationwide was less than 20% of the same period of the previous year.The Spring Festival was originally a low season for the gas station industry. This year’s situation is that sales are less than 20% of the low season, which can be said to be quite scary.It has been a month since this stage. According to my knowledge, the gas station sales recovery situation should have reached more than 50% in the past. I estimate that it can reach 70% by the end of this month, and it is expected to recover to more than 80% in April.Sauna Night Net: What is the latest stop-and-recovery situation for Guande cars in the epidemic?Yu Chang: As far as I know, our own-brand gas stations have not stopped during the Spring Festival.The gas station is 7 * 24 hours service, we use conventional management methods in the off-season, reducing the number of staff in each shift, allowing employees to take turns off.Our Guande gas station must be thoroughly disinfected every day. The key parts that are often touched by oil guns, oil machines, cash registers and other personnel will be disinfected many times a day. The gas station is also equipped with a thermometer, alcohol, and hand washingLiquids and disinfectants are used by car owners.Years ago, we urgently purchased colonial masks and distributed them to car owners free of charge. These measures are not only to recall customers, but also to do our part for epidemic prevention.As far as the entire industry is concerned, the gas stations that were closed during the outbreak were basically in accordance with the administrative requirements of the local government. As far as I know, there are no large-scale shutdowns of gas stations due to commercial reasons, and compared with other commercial businesses that are still returning to normalThe retail, service industry, and gas station formats have recovered quickly. I think the phase with the greatest impact in this industry should have passed.Sauna Nightnet: In addition to free-brand gas stations, Guande Automobile provides oil companies with online and offline integrated operation systems and other services. How much of these two parts account for each?Yu Chang: In terms of our own-brand gas station business, there are two brands, Guande and Chedao.The Guande brand is mainly located in the urban area of second-tier cities, both self-operated and franchised; the car-to-brand brand sinks to third- and fourth-tier cities and towns.There are about 100 gas stations of these two brands.In addition, we provide online and offline integrated operation systems, brand management services and efficiency improvement solutions for oil companies. This group of customers includes many family third-party gas stations from foreign, state-owned and private oil companies.At the revenue level, the two businesses of self-owned brand gas stations and third-party marketing services are basically half-open.There are also the number of gas stations for specific cooperation, and the data is constantly changing.Frankly, we did n’t expand too much last year, or chose to streamline some customers whose cooperation effect is not ideal or not enough.The refined oil market can be said to be a slow market. In the past, when the gross profit was extremely high, it turned out to be a state-owned private enterprise or a foreign country. The extensive operation of oil companies can make a lot of profits, but naturally it does not care enough for refined operations.After the epidemic occurred, the number of customers who came to our site increased. For oil companies, it may now be more necessary to use marketing methods to restore sales.Sauna Night Net: During the epidemic, Sinopec, PetroChina and other chain gas stations launched retail sales of fresh food and masks, which attracted attention.What do you think about the question of whether the gas station will usher in a business transformation?Yu Chang: In fact, in addition to the two barrels of oil you mentioned selling vegetables and gas masks at gas stations, Shell, a foreign oil company, launched a fueling and hairdressing service in Chengdu. Our investor, Guangdong private company Guande Petroleum, has always been during the epidemic.Refueling customers distributed millions of masks for free.In my opinion, under the influence of the epidemic, in addition to using simple and crude price wars to attract customers, oil companies have also adopted a warmer approach to marketing with brand customer experience, which is more worthy of attention.For now, I think there will be similarities between domestic and foreign gas stations in the development trend.Foreign countries have experienced so-called differentiated fuels. Various oil companies have launched high-end fuels with their own exclusive additives, established brand registered trademarks, and then promoted them through F1 racing and other activities, such as Shell’s V-Power fuels.Oil companies can make higher profits than ordinary fuel through these fuel products.At present, two barrels of oil are also promoting their own high-quality fuel, and I believe that private companies will also launch in the future.There is also the convenience store business of gas stations. I agree that this part of the business can increase the richness of the service content of gas station scenes.However, it should be known that in foreign markets such as Europe and the United States, over 50% of the profits of gas stations have come from non-oil products, that is, convenience store commodities. The profit of oil products continues to decline, so that it can be regarded as a diversion for convenience stores.However, there are big differences between the domestic and foreign markets. Many convenience stores in foreign countries close at 6 pm. Only convenience stores at gas stations provide services 24 hours, while in China, they are first-tier cities or towns.The form of individual convenience stores has been operating for a long time. Convenience stores at domestic gas stations cannot simultaneously have the same irreplaceable role.At present, in the overall profit structure of domestic gas stations, the profit contribution of convenience stores should be a numerical value in my judgment, and may even be lower than 5%.To increase the profit contribution from a numerical value to 10% or 15%, I think it will be achievable in the foreseeable future, but it still has a long way to go to develop it to more than 50%.There are also views that the development of new energy vehicles will be compatible with charging stations in the future.In my opinion, there may be a combination of oil and electricity in the integrated service area of the highway, but the gas station in the urban area is not realistic enough.The land of the city gas station is a commercial land with 40 years of use authority. For the owner, if the gas station business can no longer bring enough profit, it may be more realistic to push the gas station down to build a building than to install a charging pile.Sauna Night: How big is your own business under the influence of the epidemic?Yu Chang: According to my judgment, most oil companies in the first quarter of this year will be in a break-even or even reversed state, and the overall situation of the industry will be replaced compared with last year.As with other companies in the industry, the sales volume of Guande Automobile has shortened to more than 20% during the outbreak phase, but the sales of our own brands are recovering quickly and are in the leading position in the industry.In terms of performance this year, the epidemic is the biggest influencing factor.In addition, there are other factors that are constantly revising the industry’s profits.First of all, one of the major factors contributing to the high gross profit of gas stations is that our country has overcapacity. Refineries choose to sell at low prices, and the profit of oil prices increases.While we import large quantities of refined oil, exports of refined oil grew rapidly last year, and we can expect exports to increase further this year.Therefore, the situation of domestic overcapacity will improve with the increase in exports. The severe imbalance in supply and demand changes will transition to a relative balance. In my opinion, the gross profit at the market end will decrease accordingly.The second point is that the current market is fiercely competitive, and two barrels of oil are unwilling to reduce prices before. However, in the case where sales and profits are difficult to maintain, the two barrels of oil may choose to lose profits under the guarantee that the market share will not be degraded.There are price wars in some regions.In the case where oil companies are eager to resume sales after the epidemic, the price war may be more intense, and the overall profit margin of the industry will be further squeezed.Sauna Night Net: Under the expectation of a price war, what kind of market pattern will the gas station market form in the future?Yu Chang: The gas station market in China seems to me to be the long tail market. PetroChina and Sinopec each own more than 20,000 gas stations, with a combined total of more than 50,000 gas stations. Shell Gas Station ranks third in market share.There are only more than a thousand in the country, and then several foreign oil companies and China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Sinochem. The scale of their gas stations ranges from tens to more than a thousand. Next, the number of gas stations among private oil companies is the largest.There are only about two hundred, and the subsequent composition of more than 50,000 gas stations is mainly small operators with only one or two gas stations.In such a market, integration is a matter of time.Compared with any mature or mass-bonded market abroad, it is basically highly concentrated, and there are only a few big brand companies in the industry competing with each other.When the era of profiteering ends and the industry enters a standardized development, companies depend on brands, network scale, professional operation, and cost control.Sauna Night Net: How big is the future survival space of private gas stations?In February this year, Heshun Petroleum launched an IPO, sprinting the first share of a private gas station.What do you think of the development direction of private oil companies?Yu Chang: At present, the total number of gas stations of private oil companies has exceeded 50%, but the sales volume in the refined oil market is only more than 20%. The industry scale of private gas stations is not equal to the market sales, which means the sales of private gas stationsThe efficiency is lower than that of two barrels of oil and foreign countries.The reason for the low sales efficiency of private oil companies, I think it is still lack of brand recognition and network scale.If an enterprise has sufficient sales networks in local areas and gas stations are deployed in multiple locations, customer loyalty is not the same. There must be considerable room for improvement in service, refined management, and oil quality.The future integration of the gas station market will inevitably happen, and the sales efficiency of private oil companies is also in the process of improvement.But in this process, not all companies can do well.Brands need to continue to build, establish long-term brand awareness, and companies expand their test management capabilities and whether they have the capital to attract talent. I think there is very little that can be done.Sauna, Ye Wang Zhu Yueyi Zhao Yibo Editor Xu Chao proofreading Zhuo Zhuo
Hudian shares (002463) company comment: 19-year performance forecast meets expectations 5G orders are abundant
I. Overview of the event Event: On December 16, the company released the 2019 annual performance forecast: net profit attributable to mother 11.
500 million to 12.
50,000 yuan, an annual increase of 101.
6% to 119.
Second, the analysis and judgment of the 19-year progress performance forecast is in line with expectations.
Expected Q4 single-quarter net profit attributable to mother 2.
99 ppm to 3.
99 ‰, an increase of 59 in ten years.
7% to 113.
4%, compared with -19.
8% to 7%.
The performance growth mainly benefited from: additional abundant 5G orders; continuous improvement in operations and increase in gross profit margin; continuous growth in scale effects and continuous improvement in profitability; low proportion of direct exports to the United States, and low impact from trade friction.
5G products are supplied in batches, corporate communication orders are full, and the market share of high-end products such as high-speed boards has increased to 1. 5G products have been supplied to major global communication equipment manufacturers in batches, and their business share has continued to increase.
As one of the 5G PCB core suppliers, the company will continue to benefit from 5G infrastructure trends, high-speed server and network equipment upgrades.
2. Demand for downstream high-speed servers, data storage, switches, and routers continues to grow. Due to the high signal transmission speed and signal requirements of high-speed boards used by servers, high-speed copper clad laminates are several times more expensive than ordinary copper clad laminates. It is expected that next year’s 5G scale infrastructureIt will drive the high-speed board volume and price to rise at the same time. After the technical renovation of the Qingying Plant and the Huangshi No. 1 Plant, the high-end PCB output will be effectively improved, and the market share will continue to increase.
At present, the high gross profit margin 14-38 layer corporate communication market board and office industrial equipment board are the main revenue sources of the company, and the revenue growth rate is fast, which effectively promotes the improvement of overall profitability.
The mid-to-high-end product structure has continued to be optimized. Huangshi Hushi has been successfully put into production, but domestic car sales have shrunk in the first three quarters. The mid-to-low-end auto plate product competition is fierce.Production efficiency has continued to improve, and the profitability of automotive panels has steadily increased, which will continue to benefit from ADAS and new energy vehicle policies.
In September, part of the production process of the Huangshi No. 2 Plant has begun trial operation. At present, the Huangshi Hushi automobile plate production line has been put into operation smoothly.
Huli Microelectronics continued to improve production efficiency and introduced new technologies.
Third, investment advice The company is a leading domestic telecommunications and automotive PCB supplier, which has long benefited from 5G infrastructure and automotive electronics trends.
It is expected that the EPS in 19/20/21 will be 0.
07 yuan, corresponding PE is 34X / 27X / 23X.
The reference SW printed circuit board industry PE is 苏州夜网论坛 estimated to be 40 times, maintaining the company’s “recommended” level.
4. Risk warning: 1. The production capacity is less than expected; 2. The gross profit margin is gradually increased due to the fierce competition in automobile boards;
International observation: New crown epidemic is “critical” for Japan
Original title: International Observation: The New Crown epidemic is “dangerous” to Japan. “News” caused by the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship spread in Japan, making Japan one of the focus countries of the international community.The sudden emergence of the new crown epidemic has had a great impact on Japan’s economic development.Japan 杭州夜网 ‘s Ministry of Finance ‘s preliminary January trade statistics released on February 19, 2020 (subject to customs clearance) show that exports to major countries and regions have alternated with the same period of the previous year.The spread of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in February has only worsened the situation and may cause Japanese trade to shrink further.Japan ‘s domestic investment in equipment to support production has been slow, the consumption slump after the increase in consumption tax, and new crown pneumonia have led to fewer foreign tourists visiting Japan, and the sense of stagnation in the Japanese economy has become increasingly apparent.According to Japan’s NHK report, the survey results released by the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry show that over 60% of SMEs weighing current or future business development are affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic.The survey data shows that the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on business operations has 11.3% of companies responded that “has already affected development”, 52.4% of enterprises responded that “the epidemic will have an impact on development if it continues for a long period of time.” A total of over 60% of SMEs said that they have affected the development of the enterprise or will affect future development.The survey data on the business content specifically affected showed that the answer “reduction in the number of goods booked and reduction in Chinese tourists’ consumption turnover” amounted to 61.8%, “changes in supply sources such as partners increase procurement costs” accounted for 26.6%, “increasing the cost of preventive measures against infection of employees and customers” accounted for 24.6%.The new crown epidemic is a major public health crisis for Japan. Judging from the following aspects, it can be said that there is an opportunity in the crisis.First, it was a turnaround for Japanese diplomacy.After the New Crown epidemic, friendly people from all walks of life in Japan enthusiastically assisted China with various anti-epidemic materials. In particular, the heart-warming verse “The Mountains and Rivers Exotic, the Wind and the Moon Are the Same” has moved countless Chinese people.Infectious diseases have no national borders, and the virus has no national or national distinction. In the face of major public health security, only China and Japan can bring their hands together to overcome the difficulties, cooperate courageously to cope with infectious diseases, and concentrate on conquering the virus.Panic and threat are China and Japan’s responsible actions to the international community as two big countries in East Asia.As a big country with world-leading technology in the fields of science, technology, medicine and health, Japan should be in danger of launching a new coronal disease and race against time to gather first-class researchers to develop a new coronavirus vaccine, and share the treatment of epidemic diseases with China within its ability.Technology and experience.As an important country in Northeast Asia, South Korea has also been spared in this outbreak.South Korea ‘s Central Epidemic Prevention Department notified on the morning of February 24, 2020 that South Korea added 161 confirmed cases of new coronavirus infection, and added one more death case.A total of 763 cases have been confirmed and 7 deaths have been confirmed nationwide.In the past weekend, South Korea surged 398 new cases of neonatal pneumonia, an increase of 195% in just two days.South Korean President Moon Jae-in announced on Sunday that he would establish the highest level of a new corona outbreak alert, which gives the government the right to take comprehensive measures to stop the epidemic in particularly severe cities.In the face of major epidemics, China, Japan, and South Korea can strengthen cooperation in the prevention and control of major infectious diseases, and at the same time add significant significance to the China-Japan-Korea cooperation framework.When the leaders of China, Japan, and South Korea met in Chengdu, China in December 2019, they raised their intention to strengthen cooperation in the field of disease prevention and control in the future. The outbreak of the new crown epidemic has helped China, Japan and South Korea in the prevention and control of major infectious diseases.Provides important cooperation possibilities.In addition, at the current stage, Japan-ROK relations are tense. As close neighbors, Japan and South Korea should replace their former suspects, cooperate to deal with the troubles caused by the epidemic, and control the speed and scale of the epidemic in Northeast Asia.In fact, 2020 is the year of sports diplomacy for Japan. The Tokyo Olympics and the Paralympic Games have to be antiques. The new crown epidemic has brought a huge test to the safe and smooth hosting of the Olympics.Around the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo, it is expected that there may be 100 heads of state and leaders at the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games on July 24. The Japanese government has fully started preparations on February 23.This will be an unprecedented “Olympic diplomacy” for Japan.”Olympic diplomacy” can not only show the beauty of Japan’s scenery, culture, food, and history, but also show Japanese infrastructure (including accommodation facilities), traffic control, security, health care and other measures that are supporting the Olympics.good chance.Whether the “Olympic Diplomacy” can be successfully held will force the Japanese government to work hard to prevent and treat various infectious diseases, including new crown pneumonia, and to prevent and control infectious diseases.Development has created some kind of pressure.Because “stress is motivation.”Again, the new crown epidemic will be a test to test Japan’s developed science and technology, and will also push Japan’s medical technology forward.Needless to say, Japan is already a scientific and technological progress. In many advanced technology fields, Japan is ahead of the world.The new crown epidemic, this sudden arrival of “new rivals”, disrupted Japan’s position and was a big test of Japan’s developed technology.Japan can take advantage of this outbreak to increase joint research and cooperation between various domestic first-class scientific research institutions and universities, scientifically deploy the enthusiasm of first-class scientific researchers 合肥夜网 and university professors, and prompt them to analyze the cause and source of the disease as soon as possible, and work out a new crown as soon as possible.The virus vaccine and good medicine can share the experience of disease research and development with the international community in a responsible manner.The epidemic is a major driving force. Every major epidemic in human society has accelerated the emergence of vaccines and good medicines that overcome the epidemic.The new coronary disease released this time is no exception. It has some impact on Japan, but for Japan ‘s technology, the impact is not fragmentary and fundamental. Japan should immediately learn lessons, control the spread of the epidemic as soon as possible, and push back JapanRelevant medical research institutions should work out methods and alternatives to deal with the epidemic as soon as possible.Faced with the epidemic, everyone is equal.Everyone, every country, has not escaped or escaped the “Gold Medal”.The epidemic has no trace, no shadow, but there are always clues to the epidemic, and there are always ways to find it and unify it.In the face of this “relentless” epidemic, cooperation and friendship between nations is invaluable, and watchfulness and assistance between nations are the most “morbid” bonds.Japan is no exception.I also believe that Japan can overcome the inconvenience caused by the epidemic and smoothly promote the hosting of the 2020 Olympic Games.(The author of Pang Zhongpeng is an associate researcher at the Japanese Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
Yinlun Stock (002126) In-depth Tracking Series (2)-Opening New Space from Traditional to New Energy Thermal Management
The company is a leader in automotive thermal management. Following the wave of automotive electrification, its business has expanded from traditional thermal management to new energy thermal management.Since 2016, new energy thermal management products have begun mass production. Current products include water pumps, cooling plates, PTC heaters, heat exchangers, heat pump air conditioners, etc. Major customers include BYD, GAC, Geely, Ningde Times and overseas Volvo, DaiMueller et al.The market for new energy thermal management is large, and the company has obtained many orders. It is expected to open up the company’s growth space in the future.Continue to focus on recommendation and maintain “Buy” rating. The company is a leader in automotive thermal management and exhaust treatment, following the wave of automotive electrification.The company is a leader in the field of automotive heat exchange. Since 2016, the company’s new energy thermal management products have begun mass production. The current products include water pumps, cooling plates, PTC heaters, heat exchangers, heat pump air conditioners, etc. The main customers include BYD, GAC, Geely, Ningde era and overseas Volvo, Daimler, etc. The global electric vehicle thermal management industry space is expected to reach $ 60 billion by 2025.We estimate that the global thermal management market for electric passenger cars will reach 170 trillion in 2020, of which about 7.5 billion in China and about 9.5 billion overseas.Driven by the rapid growth of downstream electric vehicle demand in the next five years and the increase in the average bicycle value (such as: heat pump air conditioners replacing PTC heating air conditioners, etc.), the global electric passenger vehicle thermal management market is expected to reach 60 billion in 2025, CAGR + 30%. The company’s new energy thermal management has continued to expand overseas customers, and has achieved preliminary demonstration.Domestic customers of the company’s new energy thermal management include BYD, GAC Auto, Geely, Changan Ford, JMC New Energy, some new car building forces, and battery company Ningde Times.Geely has already obtained orders for Geely’s PMA platform heat exchange assembly and Volvo SPA2 platform cooling module. On January 19, 2020, the company announced that it had won the GMA and Daimler joint venture PMA-2 platform heat pump air conditioner package.The company has successively entered the supply chain of Geely PMA, Volvo SPA, and Daimler Intelligent Vehicles. We expect that it will gradually and actively “exemplify the role” in opening up new customers in the future. New energy thermal management orders in hand exceed 5 billion yuan, and it is estimated that annual revenue contribution from 2022 will exceed 1 billion yuan.We combed the company’s announcement of new energy thermal management orders in detail. It is estimated that the total orders in hand will exceed 5 billion, and it will accelerate the release from 2021.Among them, we expect the company’s new energy thermal management revenue in 2019/2020/20212.5/4.5/6.500 million US dollars, accounting for 5% / 7% / 9% of revenue; annual revenue after 2022 will exceed 1 billion US dollars, and the proportion of revenue will exceed 10%, which will drive the company’s overall growth and further increase the company’s scale. Risk factors: The sales of major 淡水桑拿网 downstream passenger car customers are not up to expectations; new product development is not up to expectations; fluctuations in raw material prices. Investment suggestion: In the short term, it is expected that the company’s passenger car business will stabilize and the exhaust aftertreatment EGR business will break out.In the medium and long term, it is expected that the company’s new energy thermal management business will benefit from the increase in downstream demand and continue to obtain new orders. The company itself will also continue to be competitive through product transformation.At the same time, Yinlun Co., Ltd. is actively expanding its global business and will enjoy global replacement dividends for a long time.The recent repurchase also shows confidence.Maintain 2019-2021 net profit return to mothers3.23/3.86/4.83 ppm, currently corresponding to PE 23/19/15 times.In general, we are very optimistic about the company’s growth. The current valuation corresponds to 19 times PE in 2020 and 25 times PE in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 12.00 yuan, key recommendation, maintain “Buy” rating.
Bank of Beijing (601169): Superior endowment improvement is expected
City commercial banks with a large volume and many licenses have been given an “overweight” rating. Bank of Beijing is the country’s largest city commercial bank by assets.
Revenue in 2018 was 554.
880,000 yuan, 3 years CAGR is 7.
97%; net profit attributable to mother 200.
20,000 yuan, CAGR of 5 for 3 years.
Bank of Beijing has a multi-state ownership structure of “state-owned + foreign + private enterprises” and has in-depth cooperation with foreign shareholders ING Bank of the Netherlands.
We believe that the distribution of Beijing’s banking institutions is leading among city commercial banks, with a prominent multi-certificate business model, accelerated asset quality clearance, fundamentals are expected to boost, and the advantages of underestimation and high yield are obvious.
We forecast the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021.
1% / 9.
6% / 10.
25 yuan with a target price of 6.
66 yuan, for the first time, give “overweight” rating.
Point 1: Widely distributed 南京桑拿网 branches with potential growth potential The Bank of Beijing’s head office is well positioned, and it has now achieved a higher city share in Beijing (the size of the loan market at the end of June 2019).
Bank of Beijing has taken the lead in the country, and the off-site development has further opened the ceiling for scale growth.
Headquarters, Bank of Beijing is one of the city commercial banks that has initially realized cross-regional development, with a large volume of off-site businesses (388 off-site branches in 11 provinces and cities across the country).obvious.
At the same time, the Bank of Beijing’s remote development is highly sustainable.
The growth rate of offsite total assets is higher than that of the local area, and the ROA of most offsite areas is higher than the local area, reflecting the good effect 天津夜网 of offsite operation.
Point two: Intermediate business has advantages. Deepening the comprehensive operation of intermediary business income is an advantaged project of Bank of Beijing. The proportion of intermediary income ranks second among listed city commercial banks.
Financial management fee income, which is affected by the new rules of asset management, is expected to gradually recover, which will help the growth of intermediate income.
Bank of Beijing’s subsidiaries have rich business licenses (insurance, funds, consumer finance and financial leasing), and cooperate with foreign exchanges (France, Spain, Canada and other foreign countries), which has brought diversified income sources for banks.
Bank of Beijing is exploring more diversified business methods, including the establishment of fintech subsidiaries, joint venture banks, etc., to help the business to a higher level.
In May 2019, the Bank of China Banking Technology Co., Ltd. was officially unveiled. In March, the board of directors decided to co-fund with ING Bank to establish a foreign-funded joint venture bank to continue to play a pioneering role in opening up to the outside world and continue to deepen its position as an integrated operation.
Point three: The risk clearing is accelerated, and the asset quality is expected to meet the inflection point. Since 2019, the Bank of Beijing’s asset quality marginal improvement.
Since Q1 of 2019, the NPL ratio has been stable, the provision coverage ratio has bottomed out and rebounded. Since Q2, the NPL generation rate has fallen significantly, and the degree of non-performing substitution has dropped significantly.
We believe that the risk can be cleared faster, and asset quality is expected to weaken the Bank of Beijing’s performance drag. Expectations are as follows: 1) Adjust the loan structure and increase the loan expansion speed in areas with outstanding asset quality.
2) The asset pressure loss in the area of risk pressure increased, and the disposal of stock risk entered the second half.
Underestimated indicators + fundamentals improved, target price 6.
The 66 yuan company underestimates the advantages of high yields. The improvement of fundamentals is expected to determine that there is room for repair.
We forecast the company’s net profit growth attributable to mothers in 2019-2021.
1% / 9.
6% / 10.3%, BVPS 9 in 2020.
82 yuan, corresponding to PB 0.
Dividend conversion for 2018 based on December 26 closing price5.
07%, the advantage is outstanding.
The 2020 wind of comparable listed city commercial banks consistently predicts that PB will be zero.
89 times, the company has a lot of room for development in other places, and the asset quality is controllable. There should be room for reduction in the reference to the estimated discount of the industry.
We give 0 in 2020.
78 times PB, with a target price of 6.
Risk Warning: The economic downturn exceeds expectations, and asset quality deteriorates more than expected.
Jiadian Co. (000922): Higher than expected performance raised to “Buy”
Performance summary: The company achieved revenue 5 in Q1 2019.
40,000 yuan, an annual increase of 52%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 0.
97 ‰, a year-on-year increase of 87%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is non-recurring.
94 million, a year-on-year increase of 150%.
The performance was beautiful and exceeded market expectations.
Sales volume increased, market share increased, and profitability continued to rise.
Demand continued to improve, market share increased, and product sales growth led to an increase in revenue growth of up to 52%.
The company’s overall gross profit margin in Q1 2019 was 32.
81%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.
14pp, keep it high.
Sales expense ratio, management expense ratio (including R & D), and financial expense ratio are 7.
13%, year to year change -5.
Among them, the absolute amount of selling expenses in 2019Q1 is 0.
43 trillion, ranked 0 in the same period last year.
4.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.
17%, or it means that the company’s order situation is better, resulting in an increase in sales scale, while the absolute amount of sales expenses does not increase but decreases.
State-owned enterprise reform and four generations of nuclear power quality targets.
The major shareholders promised to solve the problem of inter-industry competition by January 2021, and considered that Harbin Electric Power Equipment Co., Ltd., which constitutes inter-industry competition, was Harbin Electric (1133.
HK) A wholly-owned subsidiary, the settlement procedure is relatively complicated.
Major shareholders are currently promoting Harbin Electric (1133.
HK) The privatization process will help solve the problem of competition in the industry.
On April 1, 2019, Yu Jianfeng, Chairman of the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, introduced at the China Nuclear Energy Sustainable Development Forum. In the field of nuclear power innovation in the fourth generation, China has rapidly implemented a major national science and technology project for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors.Entering the final stage of installation and commissioning, the first half of 2020 will be completed and put into production.
The company’s subsidiary Jiamusi Motor Co., Ltd. is the general contractor of the main helium fan equipment of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plant. It is responsible for the independent research and development and manufacture of the core component of the main helium fan-the drive motor.Responsible for the overall equipment of fan parts, coolers, baffles, electric devices, etc.
On April 16, 2019, the two sets of main helium blowers that were contracted by Jiadian Company were all handed over after passing the site acceptance.
Earnings forecasts and investment advice.
Demand is recovering, the pattern is improving, performance continues to exceed expectations, and the company’s net profit attributable to mothers is increased to 5 in 2019-2021.
7.2 billion (was 4).
4.3 billion), the corresponding EPS is 1.
58 yuan, corresponding to PE estimates of 11 times, 9 times, 8 times, respectively, raised to “Buy” rating, given a 6-month target PE 18 times, corresponding to 18.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected risk; company profitability is less than expected risk.
Tomatoes can prevent prostate cancer
Recent studies have shown that daily consumption of tomatoes and tomato products and oral supplements containing lycopene have considerable benefits for human health and have the effect of preventing prostate cancer.
Harvard Medical School surveyed 47,894 male health professionals who did not have prostate cancer, and the results showed that large amounts of lycopene could effectively protect the prostate.
Of the 46 foods containing carotenoids, three-quarters of those related to reducing the risk of prostate cancer contain lycopene-tomato sauce, tomatoes.
If you eat more than 10 tomatoes and tomato products per week, substitute 1 for those that eat weekly.
Five people can reduce the risk of prostate cancer by 35%.
For severe prostate cancer, lycopene appears to be more protective.
Yoga during pregnancy effectively improves blood-based evidence
do you know?
Health is the basic factor for women to live a peaceful life, produce smoothly and have a healthy baby.
A healthy woman is more capable of relieving the high tension in the painful period and childbirth and has better recovery ability than a weak woman.
In India, many pregnant women learn and practice systematic yoga.
Because yoga can help them a lot, prepare them mentally and physically for the baby.
1. Pregnant mother yoga can make you-improve blood circulation and relieve physical discomfort. The practice of yoga can improve your blood circulation, strengthen muscle strength and flexibility, strengthen hip, spine and abdominal muscles to support the baby in the womb.Weight, reduce backache, back pain, strengthen joints and muscles, prevent bone loss and muscle fatigue.
2. Pregnant mother yoga can let you-control abdominal muscle strength, extend the process of unknowingly, relax or control your abdominal muscles, expand your pelvis and uterine contraction.
do you know?
This is very helpful to alleviate or reduce pain and discomfort during the production process, so that you can enjoy the happiness of changing the birth process.
3. Yoga for pregnant mothers can make you-build self-confidence and calm your mind, do you know?
Self-confidence during pregnancy is very important to maintain peace of mind. Yoga practice during pregnancy can help you build confidence.
You will feel like you are close to childbirth. You are full of anticipation for postpartum and postpartum body recovery. At the same time, regular exercise of yoga will make you relieve a lot of postpartum pain and fatigue.
4. Yoga for pregnant mothers can make you breathe smoothly and relax your body. By practicing yoga, you can understand the correct breathing techniques and relaxation methods, so that your heart and lung muscles are in a good state, which will lay the foundation for natural and postpartum recoverybasis.
5. Yoga for pregnant mothers can make you-increase your attention and reduce anxiety. Yoga breathing for pregnant mothers can relax your tension, increase your concentration, make you more aware of your body and growth and development conditions, and alleviate prenatal worry and tension.And fear, you will be smoother and safer during childbirth.
Pregnant mother yoga relaxes or controls the abdominal muscles, expands the pelvic bones and uterine contractions. It helps to relieve or reduce the pain and discomfort during the birth process, so that you can enjoy the happiness of changing the birth process.
6, pregnant mother yoga can make you-to enhance the sense of balance of the body After practicing a bit, you found that the flexibility and flexibility of your entire muscle tissue has been greatly improved, walking smoothly, and even the stomach becomes larger and heavier every day, you alsoYou will feel a certain balance of power in the body supporting it.
You are very happy, because you are no longer worried about accidents because of walking instability.
7, pregnant mother yoga can make you-smooth breathing, improve shortness of breath and depression. During the practice of yoga, pregnant mothers stimulate the glands that control hormone secretion and increase and accelerate blood circulation. Therefore, it controls breathing, chest tightness andShortness of breath has improved.
8, pregnant mother yoga can make you-improve sleep, eliminate insomnia, practice yoga makes your sleep more fragrant, insomnia is gone, how to lie awkwardly before is almost non-existent, you find that you fall asleep easily, and realizeDaybreak.
9, pregnant mother yoga can make the baby-flexible and sharp, healthy growth you know?
While practicing yoga, you can give adequate and gentle stimulation and massage, which increases the response to the outside, so that you can become more agile and healthy, and grow healthily.
The old man “sad autumn” is harmful to health
Sad autumn is related to the disorder of the elderly’s biological rhythm. The most effective way to prevent it is psychological adjustment and maintain optimism.
[Introduction]Recently, 68-year-old Liu Laobo always felt upset, loved to lose his temper, and his mood was very low. He actually burst into tears on the street last Friday and worried his family.
Recently, the reporter learned from some hospitals in Guangzhou that as the temperature dropped, many elderly people began to suffer from sleepiness and mental fatigue, and suffered from depression with “weak mood”.
In this regard, relevant experts pointed out that the continuous high temperature in summer leads to the overdraft of human energy. Now the autumn wind is getting more and more, the elderly are prone to the bad emotions of “sorrowful autumn”. The elderly with cardiovascular disease should pay special attention to regulating emotions and avoid inducing old age.disease.
[案例]老伯思妻当街痛哭 最近，68岁的刘老伯总觉得心烦意乱，注意力难以集中，甚至还会出现心慌、多梦、失眠等一系列症状，尤其爱发脾气，发过脾气后The mood is very low.
Last Friday, he made an appointment with his children to drink night tea, but when he walked alone on the road and saw other old people accompanying his wife, he couldn’t help but think of his wife who had just passed away for half a year. Under the sadness, he actually cried on the street.Let passers-by look.
When drinking tea in the restaurant, the little grandson accidentally broke a small bowl. Liu Laobo felt more upset and went home without even eating tea. This made the family worry.
The night before, Liu Laobo suddenly fainted when he turned his temper to his daughter.
After being examined by a doctor, Liu’s fainting was caused by his “bad temper” causing his blood pressure to rise.
According to doctors, after the fall, the body’s metabolism and physiological functions are inhibited, leading to endocrine dysfunction, which in turn makes the mood low.
For the elderly, seeing the situation of autumn wind sweeping leaves is more likely to produce bad depression.
[Expert Tips]Related to Biological Rhythm Disorder According to Yang Xiuwen, deputy director of the Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine of Guangzhou Red Cross Hospital, Qiuqiu, Sad Autumn or Qiqiu is closely related to the biological rhythm disorder of the elderly to a certain extent.
Studies have shown that the human body is undergoing a physiological rest after experiencing the heat of the summer, and the average person has a tired and drowsy phenomenon of “autumn lacking”. It is necessary to actively adjust and coordinate the body and mind by increasing sleep.
However, the elderly are unable to sleep more due to the disorder of the biological rhythm, resulting in symptoms such as sluggishness, exhaustion, depression and ecstasy.
Before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, especially in the late autumn, the temperature plummeted sharply.
In order to adapt to the drastic changes in the external temperature difference, people can adjust by means of “behavior regulation of temperature” (such as increasing or decreasing clothes).
Due to the decline of nervous system function, the sensitivity of the elderly to the external environment is not high, so it is often too late to adopt the “behavior regulation temperature” means, thus affecting the coordination of the elderly and the body, making it difficult to maintain a stable mental state.
In addition, the elderly are more susceptible to the effects of autumn dryness, the resistance to external bad stimuli, the tolerance is reduced, the mood is restless, and grief is born.
Recipes for the obese
Here are breakfast, lunch, dinner and snacks. You can make your favorite food according to this menu. I wo n’t introduce yoga recipes, mainly considering that most of the recipes are Indian cooking methods. These made foodsMaybe you can’t get used to it, it doesn’t fit the Chinese diet.
You can choose the taste according to your preference.
Juice-a glass of juice, such as orange juice, apple, pineapple, or any fruit; 2.
Fresh fruit-an apple, or pomegranate, or a banana, or two peaches; 3.
Half a cup of soy milk (Indians love hummus), or oatmeal porridge, or polenta, you can add milk and sugar; 4.
Bread or baked bread-two slices; 5.
Eggs (if you want to eat)-one boiled or fried egg; 6.
Do not exceed one cup of tea or coffee (if you want to drink).
Lunch and dinner 1.
For salad, you can use tomatoes, cucumbers, radishes, lettuce, carrots, etc. Stir together, add salt, pepper, lemon juice and salad oil and your favorite salad dressing.
Any kind of soup-a cup.
Rice, bread, flatbread.
Vegetable juice for any vegetable.
Any kind of vegetables (your way of course can be cooked, fried).
You can often eat some legumes.
Meat eaters can eat fish, meat or other seafood. If possible, do not eat meat and chicken and duck for several months.
Any kind of fruit.
You can eat some dried fruits including cashews, walnuts, almonds, and peanuts.
Do not exceed one cup of tea and coffee.
Weight-control diet principles If you don’t pay attention to the principles and basic requirements of diet, just follow the recipe to eat, and you will not get satisfactory treatment results.
Eating Principles and Requirements 1.
First and foremost-chew slowly!
The second important principle is to go to bed at least two hours after eating (especially dinner).
Third, do not eat more than 80% of your meals at any time, no matter how delicious!
Don’t drink water during meals. After half an hour, you are thinking about these. At the same time, you need to finish 10-15 cups of boiled water in 24 hours a day.
Don’t eat fatty meat, fried delicious food, and foods that are popular in society should never be ignored.
You should eat less spicy seasonings, pickles, sauces, no matter how tempting they are to you.
You can only eat four times a day, 24 hours a day, and don’t eat snacks within four hours.
If you eat according to these principles and methods, then the awareness of this recipe is far-reaching and more important.