Sunshine Lighting (600261): Significant improvement in performance and increased proportion of brand business
Core point of view: The performance of the first half of 2019 is expected to increase, and the company’s performance will increase significantly every year. It is expected that net profit attributable to mothers will be achieved in the first half of 20193.36?3.86 ‰, 105% increase in ten years?135%; net profit after deducting non-attribution is 2.17?2.550,000 yuan, a ten-year increase of 70% to 100%.Non-recurring gains and losses are mainly due to the increase in gains from changes in the fair value of Great Wall Securities stocks held, which are expected to affect the net profit attributable to the parent by approximately 0.9.8 billion yuan.The company’s performance has improved significantly. Exchange rate + material price decline + increase in the proportion of independent brands and continuous improvement in performance) It is higher in the same period of 2018, and the direct exchange gains have also contributed to the gross profit margin. Second, the prices of major raw materials (such as aluminum and packaging materials) in 2019H1 are also falling. Finally, the company’s private-label business proportion has also increased 深圳spa会所 at the same time.In the process, the gross profit margin is higher, and the profitability is also improved. Profit forecast and gradeIn the case of fair value changes in 2019, the company is expected to 19?The 21-year EPS is 0.40/0.37/0.43 yuan / share.Without considering the gains from changes in fair value, 19?The 21-year net profit growth rate is expected to be 31% / 7% / 16%, respectively.Among companies in the same industry, the corresponding brand of Op Lighting corresponds to 19?The 20-year PE is 22 respectively.2X / 18.6X, and Debon Lighting, which is mainly foundry, corresponds to 19?The 20-year PE is 15 respectively.4X / 13.3 times.Considering that the net profit of Sunshine Lighting is disturbed by changes in fair value in 2019, referring to the PE expected by companies in the same industry in 2020, we believe that 淡水桑拿网 the PE of Sunlight Lighting in 2020 should be between Op Lighting and Debang Lighting, the latter two being approximately 16 times.We give the company a PE estimate of 16 times in 2020, corresponding to a reasonable value of 5.92 yuan / share, give the company a “buy” rating. Risks indicate the risk of falling product prices; the risk of rising raw material prices; the risk of failure to transform.

Posted in hrkcfdat

Chenming Paper (000488): 100 cationic chemical pulp production capacity was approved, raw material self-sufficiency rate continued to increase

Event: The company’s 100 free radical chemical pulp project was approved by the Environment Bureau.

The company adjusted the annual output of 40 tons of bleached bleached sulphate chemical wood pulp to 100 tons of bleached sulphate chemical wood pulp, all of which were digested by the group.Approval of the environmental impact report of the bleached sulfate chemical wood pulp project of the limited liability company.

As of May 13, the project has been successfully put into production.

Wood pulp is expected to achieve more than 90% self-sufficiency, reducing the cost pressure of the company.

Terminating at the end of 2018, the company’s total wood pulp production capacity was 328 initially.

According to the company’s capacity planning, in 2019, the production capacity of cultural paper is 688 tons, corresponding to the total demand for 462-inch wood pulp. The company’s Shouguang Meilun 40-inch chemical pulp and Huanggang Chenming’s 30 chemical pulps have been trial-production in 18 years.The company’s raw material self-sufficiency ratio will reach 86%.

The company’s 100 mm wood pulp production project has been approved 上海夜网论坛 by the Environmental Protection Agency. In the future, the total wood pulp production capacity will reach 460 mm, and the self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp will be increased to more than 90%.

At present, the price of wood pulp is at a historically high level. It is estimated that the cost of self-sufficient wood pulp is about 1,000 yuan / ton lower than the outsourcing, which reduces the company’s cost pressure, and the corresponding gross profit margin is 3pct.

The market price of pulp may remain firm, and the company’s performance elasticity is prominent.

Last week, the Brazilian parrot announced a reduction in broadleaf pulp production by 100?
150 tons, equivalent to its monthly output, to reduce the current level of wood pulp stocks.

The overall supply and demand structure of the global wood pulp is tight.淡水桑拿网 According to our calculations, the Brazilian parrot accounts for about 40% of the global broad-leaf pulp supply, and the restriction on output has to some extent supported the pulp price.

Rising pulp prices will drive up the prices of wood pulp-based finished paper. The pulp mill owned by the company can maintain relatively stable costs and sell finished paper at high prices, increasing the profit margin and highlighting the flexibility of performance.

The financial leasing business was gradually divested and the cash flow situation began to improve.

The total size of financial leasing assets in 18 years has decreased by 24 each year.

9% to 20.2 billion US dollars, of which due within one year and long-term receivables fell, indicating that the company has started to stop external loans.

The company’s cash flow from operating activities began to normalize in 17Q3, and US $ 6.1 billion in financing leases were restored in 18Q4. The net operating cash flow for the year 18 increased by 5.

9 times to 14.1 billion yuan.

In 18 years, the cash flow of fundraising began to drop sharply, the company expanded the scale of borrowing, and expanded and increased repayment efforts.

In 18 years, progress has been made in reducing the balance sheet, and the ability to repay debt has gradually been optimized.

The company recovered 61 million US dollars in financing lease payments in 18 years to repay short-term loans and increase bank guarantees while replacing cash. As a result, the company’s actual risk exposure was reduced by about 3 billion.

By excluding the company’s financial leasing assets and non-interest-bearing debt to calculate the company’s actual asset-liability ratio, it can be found that the company’s actual asset-liability ratio has gradually decreased in 18 years4.

3pct to 71.


18 years to repay US $ 2.6 billion in perpetual debt, reducing pressure on future repayments.

The company’s 18-year net investment cash flow is downgraded by 51 each year.

0% to 17.

79 ppm, 18Q4 investment activities returned positive cash flow, the company’s investment activities began to shrink, and the future asset and liability structure promoted optimization.

The company gradually expanded its financial leasing business, improved cash flow, optimized and improved asset structure, and focused on the main business of deep plowing papermaking. In 19 years, papermaking is expected to enter the stock market, and the prosperity of pulp and paper products has recovered.Highlighted, maintain “Buy” rating.

Expected company 19?
Net profit attributable to mothers in 21 years23.



07 trillion, short-term move -7.

8% / 30.

0% / 20.

0%, corresponding to PE 6.

9X / 5.
3X / 4.

4 times.
Risk warning: the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, the risk of fluctuations in paper prices, the risk of continued deterioration of cash flows, and the risk of impairment caused by the transfer of financial lease business.

Posted in 桑拿

Aerospace Mechanical & Electrical (600151) 2018 Annual Report Comment: Performance is slightly lower than expected
The company achieved EPS 0 in 2018.03 yuan.The reported company divested some of its assets, the income growth rate increased, and the investment income increased.Taking into account the impact of non-dominant changes in the exit of the photovoltaic business on the company’s performance, the company’s EPS forecast for 2019/20 is reduced to zero accordingly.07/0.09 yuan (the original forecast was 0.11/0.14 yuan), giving the company 2021 EPS forecast 0.11 yuan.Taking 南宁桑拿 into account the company’s enhanced competitiveness after business restructuring and expectations of future asset injections, the company maintains a “Buy” rating with a target price of 8 yuan. The performance is slightly lower than expected, and long-term development is good.The company achieved revenue of 67 in 2018.10,000 yuan (ten years +0.66%), net profit attributable to mother 0.390,000 yuan, achieving EPS 0.03 yuan.The report totals that in the fourth quarter, due to the divestiture of some assets, the company realized revenue of 16%.98 ppm, a ten-year average of 26.8%, leading to the highest expected revenue growth and gross margin decreased by 0.14% to 11.94%, asset divestitures bring returns5.1.7 billion, driven by the company to return to its mother’s net profit.The company gradually withdrew from the non-advanced breakthrough in the photovoltaic industry chain, and at the same time, the controlling shareholder steadily advanced the work related to asset securitization, and the future profitability may be improved, and long-term development will be improved. The integration synergy effect gradually emerged, and the auto parts business supported the company’s performance.Reported the auto parts business income of Tier 1 companies 43.460,000 yuan, a sharp rise of 76 in ten years.8%, gross margin blood pressure 1.74% to 11.83%.The forward-looking integration of synergies between Esdaq and eraeAuto, the heat exchange system product line is richer, with 14 factories and 4 R & D centers worldwide, and the industrial layout covers Asia, Europe and the Americas.Affected by the poor sales of some downstream aircraft, Esdaq achieved revenue19.980,000 yuan, net profit 0.28 ppm, a ten-year average of 46.34%.eraeAuto realized revenue 22.110 thousand yuan, net profit is 0.5.6 billion.It is expected that the high-end auto parts business may support the company’s stable growth. Gradually withdraw from non-advanced transformation, and the profitability of photovoltaic business has rebounded remarkably.Reported company photovoltaic business income 19.22 trillion, down 47 a year.73%, gross profit margin rose by 0.57% to 8.03%.On November 8th, the companies changed to 6.490,000 yuan, 1 yuan and 80 million yuan sold to the controlling shareholder, Shanghai Airlines, 100% of Shanghai Xinzhou New Energy, 70% of Shanghai Solar Energy and 25% of Shanghai Airlines Power.Shanghai Xinzhou New Energy and Shanghai Solar’s operating revenue in 2017 were 11 respectively.100 million and 9.1 million, accounting for 55% of the total revenue of the company’s photovoltaic business in 2017, the breakthrough in the sale has reduced the company’s photovoltaic business scale.As the company further focuses on core breakthroughs in the industrial chain in the future, the profitability of the photovoltaic business is expected to pick up. The Eighth Academy of Aerospace intends to transfer the company’s shares, and the asset injection is worth looking forward to.Aerospace Technology Group’s asset securitization rate target is expected to reach 45% at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, and the subsequent progress of asset securitization will accelerate.The company is the only listed platform affiliated to the Eighth Academy of Aerospace. It is expected that a large amount of asset injection will be obtained in the future.The report states that Shanghai Airlines and the Eighth Academy of Aerospace have agreed on an axial transfer of the company they hold26.45% of shares, after the controlling shareholder completes the change, the company’s management relationship is expected to be further streamlined.If high-quality asset injections are obtained, the company is expected to significantly enhance its competitiveness while increasing its performance. Risk factors.The yield of photovoltaic power plant projects has fallen, and the reform of scientific research institutes and asset injections have fallen short of expectations. Investment Advice.Taking into account the impact of non-dominant changes in the exit of the photovoltaic business on the company’s performance, the EPS forecast for 2019/20 is revised down to zero.07/0.09 yuan (the original forecast was 0.11/0.14 yuan), giving the company 2021 EPS forecast 0.11 yuan.The current price is 6.6 yuan, corresponding to 90/71/60 times of PE in 2019/20/21 respectively.Considering the strengthening of the company’s competitiveness after business restructuring and the expectation of future asset injections, we maintain a “Buy” rating with a target price of 8 yuan (corresponding to 110 times PE in 19 years).

Posted in 夜网

Qianfang Technology (002373) Semi-annual Report Review 2019: “One Body and Two Wings” with Performance 淡水桑拿网 in Accordance with Expectations to Promote Long-term Growth

I. Event Overview Qianfang Technology released its semi-annual report with revenue of 35.

86 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.

74%, net profit attributable to mother 3.

740,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.

46%, deducting non-net profit 3.

1.3 billion, an increase of 37 in ten years.


The company’s previous disclosure of the performance report’s attributable net profit growth rate was 30.

2%, this performance is in line with expectations.

Second, the analysis and judgment of the “One Body and Two Wings” strategy continued to advance, and the synergy effect helped the two major businesses of overseas high-growth companies to develop smart traffic. The growth rates of smart security were 23 respectively.

25% and 26.


The 杭州夜网论坛 gross profit margin of the smart transportation business was small.

8%, the gross profit margin of smart security business dropped 2.


The synergy of transportation and security helps the overseas business continue to grow rapidly.

The company has undertaken Indian smart city projects, successfully delivered projects from highways, seaports, airports, and other fields. It has given full play to the synergistic advantages of transportation and security business, and its overseas business has grown at a rate of 64%.

The smart transportation business blossoms at multiple points, and key projects in multiple fields set benchmarking effects. Key projects create benchmarking effects in the field of urban transportation.

In the company’s traditional TOCC strengths, the benchmarking effect of the Huizhou project is prominent.

In the ETC field, the company has launched a full range of products such as OBU, RSU, CPC cards, covering more than 20 provinces.

At the same time, the company intensively cultivates in the field of urban transportation, strives to create a solution to alleviate traffic congestion, and wins the bid for the Northwest District Beijing CBD traffic optimization demonstration project.

In the fields of high-speed, rail transit, etc., the company has created major benchmarking projects such as Beijing Daxing International Airport Expressway Informationization, and plans to increase capital to Zhejiang Transportation Planning and Design Research Institute Co., Ltd., and strive to continuously improve its own design and project acquisition capabilities.
The comprehensive development of smart security is expected to continue the “AI + industry market”, which is the foundation for long-term development prospects.

The company’s best results in the global competition traffic scene detection in the multi-target tracking (MOT) challenge show the highest recognition accuracy rate and the lowest false alarm rate.

In the industry market, the company launched the “IPC + remote supervision + cloud service” bright kitchen lighting stove solution, which can be placed in schools, factories, restaurants and other scenarios, and the industry’s horizontal expansion capability is constantly improved.

The capacity of large-scale projects has been verified again, and multiple measures have been adopted to diversify overseas risks.

In 2019, the company participated in the Boao Forum for Asia, the security construction of the second Digital China Construction Summit, and demonstrated strength and industry integration.

In terms of overseas business, in addition to continuously deepening channel construction, the company has diversified the risks brought by overseas transfers through the construction of Indian smart cities and the five state capitals of Mexico.

The company’s security business gross margin fell by 2%.


The competition in the security industry is fierce. At the same time, the company’s expansion into multiple sub-sectors and overseas may temporarily drag on the gross profit margin.

However, the market space for high value-added products converted into AI and other products has opened up, and gross margin forecasts have gradually stabilized and rebounded.

Third, investment recommendations According to this interim report, the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be adjusted slightly to 0.



08 yuan, corresponding PE is 22X, 17X, 14X.

The average PE (TTM) of the company since 2018 is 38X, and the current PE (TTM) is 26X.

Maintain the “Recommended” level.4. Risk Warning: The security business has failed to grow faster than expected due to fierce competition, and the overseas expansion has fallen behind

Posted in pxiplspu

China and Thailand Securities: The “Rate of Interest Rate Reduction” Controversy

Source: Sino-Thai Securities Capital Management, at the time of successive interest rate cuts around the world, at the same time, domestically also launched a combination of boxing interest rate cuts.

  Taken together, there have been three types of interest rate cuts.

The first is the LPR interest rate (loan market quoted interest rate). In August, the loan market quoted interest rate formation mechanism was extended and reformed to a one-year LPR reduction of 6 basis points. Since then, it has fallen by 5 basis points in September and November.

The second is the MLF interest rate (interim lending rate). On November 5th, the one-year MLF operation rate was extended from 3.

3% down to 3.


The third is the reverse repurchase rate. On November 18, an incremental 18 billion 7-day reverse repurchase operation was conducted by way of interest rate bidding. The winning bid rate was reduced by 5 basis points to 2.


  Frequent combinations of interest rate reductions are dazzling, and different alternative research teams have also differed greatly in their judgments on monetary policy, especially on the issue of whether to enter the “interest-rate reduction cycle”.The rivalry is on.

  Anti-party view: Be cautious about the “interest-rate reduction cycle” Haitong Securities’ macro team said, “Do not talk lightly about the interest-rate reduction cycle.”

There are two reasons: First, from the perspective of the effect, the actual interest rate cut was minimal.

For example, the benchmark interest rate has only been reduced by 5bp instead of 25bp, and the loan interest rate has remained almost unchanged.

Therefore, the main message of the fine-tuning of interest rates is that monetary policy will not be tightened to prevent upward interest rates from hurting the economy by mistake.

The second is to deduce from the task results. In order to prevent the task of preventing the expected spread from pig prices to other areas, and to prevent the real estate bubble from re-emerging, we must adhere to structural deleveraging and not allow the macro leverage ratio to rise significantly.
  In the same camp as the macro team of Haitong Securities, as well as the fixed income team of BOCI, they are also cautious about confirming the interest rate cut policy.

The reasons are the same for two reasons: first, the number of so-called “rate cuts” should not be calculated repeatedly.

For example, taking the reduction of the OMO interest rate as an example, it seems that it does not exceed the market’s expected easing policy, but before the corresponding operation of the MLF interest rate reduction; because the OMO interest rate and the MLF interest rate have historically linked this law inThere have been no exceptions in recent years.

  The second reason for BOCI’s fixed income team is that it is not easy to observe the degree of market easing through interest rate prices. Most changes in market interest rates are caused by quantitative policies. Therefore, we should focus on the money supply; but this yearSince then, the monetary supply policy has always been in a state of “brightness, generosity, and stability.”

  Square view: The macro team of Zhongtai Securities had to be mentioned in the report, “The interest rate cut cycle has just begun.”

It indicates that lowering interest rates is the price of pigs and house prices, but in the case of rising pig prices and land reserves, the signal of gradually lowering the MLF rate has released a signal that pig prices and house prices are not loose, that is, structural problems can be accepted structurally.Policy to solve, but macro-scale monetary policy should still follow the fundamentals.

The current fundamental situation is that in October, economic and financial data fell across the board, food prices continued to rise, core CPI and PPI were weak, the economy did not 北京夜网 stabilize, downward pressure was still great, and the need to cut interest rates continued to rise.

  The attitude of the macro team of the Evergrande Research Institute on “rate reduction” must also be reduced.

It mentioned in the report that there is a major contradiction in the macroeconomic scale at each stage. The key to the current macroeconomic indicators is that the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, and there is no natural medium-speed growth platform to undertake in the process of shifting economic growth.Therefore, the monetary authorities have placed stable growth in a more important position.

  In fact, at least as to the question of whether to enter the “interest rate reduction channel”, the two sides of the square have completely different perceptions, but in terms of basic facts, there is 南京桑拿论坛 a lot of consensus among each other.The practical significance of previous attenuation adjustments is quite limited.

That is, they acknowledge similar facts but derive different statements.

  In this sense, the dispute between “cautious interest rate cuts” and “must drop” is accompanied by differences in the prediction of monetary policy, but rather, differences in their perceptions of economic growth and economic growth models.

Posted in zlmphnt

Guosheng Securities: The impact of loosening restrictions on the settlement of real estate in these cities?

Abstract Urbanization: From land to people, from permanent residence to household registration, the area of urban built-up areas in China increased by 150 from 2000 to 2017.

6%, but the resident population in cities and towns has only increased by 77.

2%, the urbanization of land is far better than the urbanization of the population.

This mismatch has also led to a lack of “ghost towns” in a small number of areas, so a series of policies focused on population urbanization.

  The urbanization rate of China’s permanent population and household registration population continued to exist, and it expanded significantly between 2000 and 2010.

As of 2018, the urbanization rate of the registered population was 43.

4%, 16 lower than the habitual caliber.


The relaxation requirements set out in the “Key Tasks for New-type Urbanization Construction in 2019” are mainly aimed at the settlement problems of permanent residents without household registration.

  Policy effect: Certain urban land may have different types of large-scale cities that are expected to be transformed from loose settlement.

Focus on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao three major urban agglomerations, such as Hangzhou; and the first cities in the agglomerations outside the three agglomerations, such as Zhengzhou and Xi’an.

  Type II cities focus on cities with strong attractiveness and purchase restrictions, which are expected to be affected by the policy.

Divided into three categories: 1) Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao three major urban agglomerations, such as Wuxi and Ningbo.

2) The second and third cities in urban agglomerations other than the three major urban agglomerations, such as Changsha.

3) The top two cities in the most populous provinces.

In addition to the above three types of cities, other cities need to comprehensively consider factors such as economic scale, industrial structure, education and medical resources, public services, and the natural environment.

  Two observation samples: Xi’an and Tianjin Xi’an: Settled in one million, housing prices rose sharply.

Xi’an has relaxed its settlement conditions since March 1, 2017, with “three releases and four drops”, and has settled up to one million in two years.

While the registered population is rising rapidly, Xi’an house prices are also growing rapidly, with an average increase of 37 in sample housing from February 2017 to March 2019.

0%, while Baicheng rose only 12.


With the increase in the registered population of Xi’an, along with the increase in the immediate demand for buying a house, even under the restriction of purchase restrictions, the real estate volume and price have also risen.

  Tianjin: “Patching” in a timely manner to avoid arbitrage and limited increase in housing prices.

On May 16, 2018, Tianjin released the “Haihe Talents” action plan to relax the settlement conditions. At the beginning, the settlement requirements were somewhat ambiguous.

The patch was quickly applied within 4 minutes, and the fractured staff in a work unit in other provinces and cities went to Tianjin without a work unit to apply for settlement.

Due to stricter control over the settlement conditions than in Xi’an, the increase in household registration in Tianjin is limited, and there is no role in increasing housing prices.

  Impact on the bond market: Under the divide, the major cities that loosen household registration restrictions may exacerbate the division between cities.

Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities and strong Tier 3 cities may increase the land sales and prices of some cities by relaxing the registered population; while weak Tier 3 and Tier 4 cities are increasing their population, they are also facing a decline in the number of shed reforms and a decrease in monetization.The drag on property sales.

Regarding the impact of the bond market during the year, it will affect at least two aspects. We believe that the opposite impacts the interests of the conference, that is, the economy will be dragged down by the replacement of third- and fourth-tier real estate.

  Risk reminder: Real-estate policy adjustments exceed expectations.

  The NDRC issued the “Key Tasks for New-type Urbanization Construction in 2019”, which requires that type II cities with a permanent population of 1 to 3 million in urban areas must completely remove the restrictions on settlement; type I large cities with a permanent population of 3 to 5 million in urban areas must fully releaseThe conditions for wide-ranging settlements were opened, and restrictions on households in key communities were completely lifted.

[1]How will this affect the real estate market?

  Urbanization: From land to people, from resident to land registration, the urbanization under land finance is mainly the land urbanization.

Since the tax-sharing system, local governments with “lack of money” have explored the road of land finance to leverage urbanization. By expropriating rural land instead of land prices, they can be converted into higher-priced urban construction land, which can even be converted into land.Gold, driving real estate prosperity also brings benefits.

The funds provided by the land finance have become an important source of funding for urban infrastructure.

From 2000 to 2017, China’s urban built-up area increased by 150.

6%, but the resident population in cities and towns has only increased by 77.
2%, the urbanization of land is far better than the urbanization of the population.
This mismatch has also led to a lack of “ghost towns” in a small number of areas, so a series of policies focused on population urbanization.

  The focus is on increasing the urbanization rate of the registered population.

The urbanization rate of China’s permanent population and household registration population continued to exist, and it expanded significantly between 2000 and 2010.

In October 2016, the State Council issued the “Plan to Promote the Settlement of 100 Million Non-Resident Family Population in Cities”, which requires that “the average urbanization rate of household registration population should increase by more than one per year, and the average annual household transfer rate should be more than 13 million.”Barriers to promote the urbanization rate of household registration population closer to the urbanization rate of permanent population.

By 2018, the urbanization rate of the permanent population will be close to 60%, which basically meets the goal of achieving the urbanization rate of 60% of the permanent population by 2020;[2]The urbanization rate of the registered population43.

4%, 16 lower than the habitual caliber.

2%, the difference narrowed nearly 1% compared with 2010.

[3]It can be seen that the easing settlement requirements set out in the “Key Tasks of New-type Urbanization Construction in 2019” are mainly aimed at the settlement of permanent residents without a registered household.

  Settlement relaxation affects two aspects of real estate demand: First, the permanent resident population who has not purchased a house locally, and the demand for housing released after obtaining the household registration, the demand mainly comes from local graduates, immigrants and local migrant workers.Groups, especially the first two groups.

Second, the non-registered permanent residents who have already purchased a house in the local area will release the improved demand for buying a house after obtaining their household registration. This part of the demand may still be suppressed in cities where purchase is restricted.

  Policy effect: The urban land area may be based on the city ‘s permanent population due to the division of the city ‘s size. The statistical differences in this data are relatively relative. We mainly rely on the 2017 data from the Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook of the Ministry of Housing and Construction.

It is just that there are problems in some cities in this data,[4]but the advantage is that the urban population and urban population statistics are comprehensive, covering municipalities, prefecture-level cities and county-level cities.

  It is expected that large cities in Type I can be replaced in varying degrees from loose settlement.

These cities basically have varying degrees of purchase restrictions, and restrictions on sales, such as relaxation of settlement, may bring incremental demand to the real estate market.

Focus on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao three major urban agglomerations, such as Hangzhou; and the first cities in the agglomerations outside the three agglomerations, such as Zhengzhou and Xi’an.

  Type II cities focus on cities with strong attractiveness and purchase restrictions, which are expected to be affected by the policy.

The 20 cities with limited purchase policies in type II big cities can be divided into three categories: 1) Type II big cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, such as Wuxi and Ningbo.

Backed by large urban agglomerations, and with its own integrated industrial strength and education and medical resources, it can divert talents that cannot be settled in the first city.

2) The second and third cities in urban agglomerations other than the three major urban agglomerations, such as Changsha.

As a regional center, it can form a certain degree of siphon effect on the surrounding area.

3) The top two cities in populous provinces are enough to attract the population migration in the province to support land demand.

In addition to the above three categories, other cities need to consider publicly the city’s economic scale, industrial structure, education and medical resources, and other factors such as the natural environment.

  Two observation samples: Xi’an and Tianjin. In fact, in the past three years, some cities have relaxed their settlement standards in advance.

This means that some policy effects have been released earlier.

 In 2017-2018, more than 50 cities, including Wuhan, Xi’an, Changsha, and Chengdu, have relaxed restrictions on talent settlement.

Since 2019, six cities including Haikou, Guangzhou, Dalian, Changzhou, Xi’an, and Nanjing have continued to relax restrictions on their settlement.

This model of “grabbing talent” reflects that local governments have spontaneously ran away.

We analyze from two typical samples.

  Xi’an: Settled in one million, housing prices rose sharply.
Xi’an has relaxed its settlement conditions since March 1, 2017, with “three releases and four declines”. The number of settlements reached two million in two years, and the registered population of Xi’an in 2018 reached 986.

870,000 people, 161 higher than in 2016.

940 thousand people.

[5]While the household registration population is rapidly increasing, Xi’an house prices are also increasing rapidly, and the increase in 2017-2019 is significantly higher than the overall increase in Baicheng. The average increase in sample housing from February 2017 to March 2019 was 37.

0%, while Baicheng rose only 12.


With the increase in the registered population of Xi’an, along with the increase in the immediate demand for buying a house, even under the restriction of purchase restrictions, the real estate volume and price have also risen.

  Tianjin: “Patching” in a timely manner to avoid arbitrage and limited increase in housing prices.
As a municipality directly under the Central Government of Tianjin, the “Haihe Talents” action plan was released on May 16, 2018 to relax the settled conditions. At the beginning, the settled requirements were ambiguous.
In the following four stages, patches were quickly applied, and the employees who had work units embedded in other provinces and cities went to Tianjin without a work unit to apply for settlement.

In fact, Tianjin’s relaxation of settlement conditions, mainly to hope that dating talents, retaining talents.
Due to stricter control over the settlement conditions than in Xi’an, the increase in household registration in Tianjin is limited, and there is no role in increasing housing prices.

  Not all cities can attract talent by user base, and retain talent after attracting talent.

Whether it can attract talent inflows, in addition to the hukou value and insufficient settlement, the local industry conditions, housing prices, supporting public services and the natural environment are also large.

  Taking Tianjin as an example, some people value Tianjin’s hukou, which may not lie in the industry in Tianjin, but in the college entrance examination conditions in Tianjin.

Various factors will affect the amount of talent inflow, and then affect the ability to retain talent, and then it is expected to generate more land demand.

For example, even if it attracts a large number of people to move in, if the supporting public services are not satisfactory, some of the population who settled in the early stage may choose to move out, and the land demand brought about is also short-lived.

  According to this speculation, the city itself is sufficiently attractive to fully relax 武汉夜网论坛 settlements and attract population migration to support real estate and boost land finance revenue.

And if the city itself is not attractive enough to attract population inflows, it will not be able to support real estate and land finance.

Therefore, under this model may be “the stronger the stronger, the weaker the weaker.”

  Impact on the bond market: Under the divide, the major cities that loosen household registration restrictions may exacerbate the division between cities.

  First-tier, second-tier, and strong third-tier cities, by relaxing their household registration growth, have just brought the need to buy a house to some extent, which may push up land sales and prices in some cities.

However, since 2017, 50 cities have relaxed their settlement conditions, and some policy effects have been released ahead of 南京桑拿网 schedule.

While weak third- and fourth-tier cities are constantly facing population growth, they also face real estate sales dragged down by the replacement of sheds and the decline in the proportion of monetization.

  In terms of lengthening, loosening household registration restrictions in big cities is conducive to enhancing the benefits of urbanization and increasing the efficiency of economic growth.

As for the impact of the bond market during the year, we believe that the substitution shock to the economy will worsen, that is, the economy will be dragged down by the replacement of third- and fourth-tier real estate.

  Housing and living not speculation + local relaxation under the policy framework of the city, part of the impact on the amount of shed changes, but it is likely not enough to fully hedge.

After all, the effect of the policy is mainly focused on the transformation of the resident population to the registered population. For population migration, while increasing the land demand in the migrating area, it also corresponds to the decrease in the land demand of the migrating area.The maximum increase in land demand is limited.

  注:  [1] 2014年11月发布的《国务院关于调整城市规模划分标准的通知》,以城区常住人口为统计口径,将城市划分为五类七档。Cities with a permanent population of less than 500,000 in urban areas are small cities. Among them, cities with a population of more than 200,000 and less than 500,000 are small cities of type I, and cities with a population of less than 200,000 are small cities of type II.Medium cities; cities with a permanent population of 1 million to 5 million are large cities, of which cities of 3 million to 5 million are type I large cities, cities of 1 million to 3 million are type II large cities; urban permanent populationCities with more than 5 million and less than 10 million are megacities; cities with more than 10 million permanent residents in urban areas are megacities.

  [2] 2014年《国家新型城镇化规划》提出该目标。  [3]It is still 1 away from the target of 45% of the urbanization rate of the registered population in 2020.


The increase in the urbanization rate of the registered population, in addition to the permanent population settled, also has an important source is the removal of counties (county-level cities) to set up districts. From 2011 to 2017, the number of municipal districts increased by 105, and county-level cities and counties decreased.6 and 101.

  [4]For example, Hefei should belong to type II big cities according to the statistical data, but it was included in type I big cities in the “Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Development Plan”.

  [5]Xixian New District is under the jurisdiction of Xi’an, which affects about 600,000 people.

  Risk reminder: Real-estate policy adjustments exceed expectations.

Under the principle of no housing and speculation, some cities may relax their real estate policies due to the city ‘s policy to hedge against the financial pressure caused by the decline in land transfer income.


  Author: fixed income analyst Liu Guosheng Yu, Source: Yu Yan bond market

Posted in 按摩

Zhaoyan New Medicine (603127): 19H1 Exceeds Expectation, Excavation of Moat in Two Directions

Event: The company released its 2019 interim report. In 19H1, it realized revenue of 200 million yuan, net profit attributable to mothers of 40.14 million yuan, and net profit attributable to non-mothers of 28.63 million yuan, up 49%, 79%, and 87% 深圳桑拿网 respectively; EPS 0 was achieved.

25 yuan, the performance exceeded market expectations.

Opinion: The main business of 19Q2 accelerated significantly, exceeding market expectations.

The company’s single-quarter revenue in 19Q1 and 19Q2 increased by 44% and 51%, respectively. Net profit after deducting non-return to motherhood increased by -18% and 147%, respectively.Factors such as commissioning, smooth management costs, etc.

In 19H1, safety assessment business revenue accounted for about 70%, and it is said that safety assessment’s main business achieved a steady and high growth of more than 40%.

The company’s newly signed contracts in 19H1 increased by 21% annually. For 19 consecutive years, the company’s orders on hand reached 1 billion, an increase of more than 18%.

Suzhou 1.

The new animal house of 10,000 square meters has started trial operation in May 19th.

Our growth, coupled with new production capacity, breakthroughs will support the company’s rapid growth in the next three years, and the revenue volume is expected to reach 800 million to 1 billion.

Wide coverage of incentive plans and rapid growth in escort performance.

The company announced the implementation of stock investment and supplementary stock incentive plans on July 29. It has a well-known number of employees of 817 at the end of the year. The incentive plan covers nearly 30% of the company’s employees and has a wide coverage.

This plan will fully constrain the company’s core employees, increase the stability of the company’s personnel, and enhance the company’s competitiveness against the background of high mobility in the CRO industry.

The performance appraisal for 2019-2021 requires an average annual income growth of more than 30%, fully demonstrating development confidence.

Extend in both directions, and dig deep into the moat.

As a domestic leader in safety evaluation, while fully benefiting from the domestic wave of research and development of innovative drugs, the company is actively conducting a vertical and horizontal layout to consolidate the layout of the leader.

The company is in the upstream and downstream extension of the industrial chain. The company’s Wuzhou Monkey House project, clinical, and pharmacovigilance business are advancing steadily. In addition, the company intends to acquire Biomere in the United States is the top three preclinical CRO companies in the New England region of the United States.

Zhao Yan’s 18-year domestic pharmaceutical companies accounted for 97% of the revenue. Through this acquisition, Zhao Yan will strengthen its ability to meet the global pharmaceutical companies’ application requirements for clinical trials at the FDA and open the company’s growth ceiling.

Earnings forecast and investment 北京桑拿洗浴保健 grade: The company has too many orders in hand, and after the new capacity is put into production, its performance will continue to grow rapidly.

We maintain our EPS forecast for 19-21 to 0.



61 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38% / 34% / 30%, corresponding to 59/44/34 times of PE in 19-21, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: The new production capacity is less than expected; the acquisition and integration is worse than expected; competition is intensifying.

Posted in hrkcfdat

112 surveys on insurance capital in the past month
Original title: 112 surveys on insurance, capital, and technology companies in the past month. International Financial News reporters have incomplete statistics based on Oriental Fortune Chioce data. For the past month from November 6 to December 6, financial institutionsInvestors surveyed 4,441 listed companies, and 339 listed companies were investigated.  As the second largest institutional investor in the A-share market, equity investment strategy is the focus of market attention.Specifically, the insurance funds surveyed 112 listed companies in total, of which 23 were information 淡水桑拿网 technology companies, 22 were consumer goods companies (food and clothing), and 21 were pharmaceutical and biological companies.In addition, local banks, such as Changshu Bank, were also surveyed four times by insurance.  An insurance company executive said that in the future, the competition between companies and the market will be the competition of technological capabilities. The electronics and computer industries will be the top priority, and they are optimistic about the growth potential of technology-related sectors.In addition, as a long-term fund, insurance capital has always been stable and focused on risk control. Therefore, the industry’s leading stocks are considered as investment targets.  Ganfeng Lithium has been interviewed by leading financial institution investors 8 times for 4,441 investigations of listed companies, a reduction of 3977 times from the previous period, which is almost a “slash.”Among them, the number of main board research decreased by 467 times, the number of GEM research decreased by 1085 times, and the number of small and medium-sized board research decreased by 2531 times.  However, the number of listed companies studied has risen slightly. In the past month, 339 companies have been studied, an increase of 16 from the previous period.Among them, the main board decreased by 4, the GEM increased by 12, and the small and medium-sized board increased by 4.  In terms of different industries, the chemical and pharmaceutical industry and the computer software industry are very popular, each receiving 311 visits by financial institution investors; the food industry was surveyed 222 times; the rare metal industry was found 204 times; and the special equipment industry was interviewed 167 times.Followed by general equipment, electronic equipment manufacturing, other building materials, medical equipment, small household appliances industry.  In terms of branches, listed companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, Xianyang Pharmaceutical, Zhongshun Jierou, Huayu Software, Puluo Pharmaceutical, Dongfenghonghong, Sanquan Food, Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical, Guao Technology, Chen’an Technology, etc.Has affected the attention of institutional investors.Among them, Ganfeng Lithium has been surveyed 204 times in the past month, an increase of 204 times, and has pushed the rare metal industry into the top four on its own.  Among these institutional investigators, a total of 7 insurance companies investigated 8 times, accounting for 7.2%, ranked first.The seven related insurance companies are Guohua Life, Hengan Standard Life (2 times), Ping An Annuity, Qianhai Life, Tianan Life, Wing On Property Insurance, and China Life.  Ganfeng Lithium is the leader in domestic lithium product processing, the third largest in the world and the largest lithium compound manufacturer in China. It is currently connected to the new energy vehicle industry. Due to the cold sales of new energy vehicles, consumer battery demand is less than expected. The company’s third quarter resultsPoor performance.  Xianfeng Pharmaceutical Agency visited 105 times, an increase of 100 times over the same period of last year. A total of 4 insurance companies were found and found 4 times; Zhong Shunjie was investigated 102 times, and a total of 1 insurance company was found 1 time;Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical is the “new continent” for institutional investors. It has been researched 79 times and found by 5 insurance companies and 6 insurance companies.  Stepping on information technology, statistics from food consumption “International Financial News” reporters show that 19 insurance-related institutions surveyed listed insurance companies 112 times in total, of which 23 were information technology companies and 22 consumer goods companies involving food, clothing, and housing (food 11Times), 21 times for pharmaceutical and biological enterprises.  Among them, Ganfeng Lithium, Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical, Puluo Pharmaceutical, Sanquan Food, and Xianquan Pharmaceutical received attention and were found more than 4 times. In addition, Changshu Bank, a local bank, was also surveyed 4 times by insurance.Information technology, biomedicine, and consumer sectors have become the focus of attention.  Obviously, it is expected that the number of surveys on beverage and food companies will increase by the end of the year, and the number of surveys on food companies will reach 11 times.  The data of the research conducted by the insurance capital on listed companies reflects the new investment trends of long-term funds.Some people have pointed out that insurance companies will seek potential partners that are consistent with their own strategies through research and investment, and that emerging companies will be the top priority of their future layout.  In the past month, when talking about what insurance companies have found that listed companies are the most diligent, the several pension insurance companies at the top of the list are hard to ignore.China Life Pension is ranked 1st, with a total of 12 investigations; Changjiang Pension is ranked 3rd, with a total of 8 investigations; Ping An Pension is ranked 5th, with 5 investigations.  At the same time, China Life is the most diligent of all insurance companies.A total of 20 listed companies have been studied, including China Life Pension and China Life.China Life Vice President Zhao Peng officials said at the interim results meeting that there are three main considerations in investing in the open market: First, the long-term core assets are estimated at a low level, including stable profitability and better dividend potential.The second is that most of them will be mainly financial investments, which currently do not meet the requirements for long-term equity investment accounting. The third is that in the future, they will continue to pay attention to high-quality investment targets in various industries including investment stocks, and do not rule out the company’s investment based on future strategic considerations.A business.  During the year, the insurance funds were listed nine times. On December 4, China Pacific Insurance announced that the company was managed by China Pacific Life Insurance Co., Ltd.-Dividends-Individual Dividends and China Pacific Life Insurance.Co., Ltd.-Traditional-General Insurance Products “two accounts respectively subscribed for 61.6 million and 50.4 million shares of Shanghai Lingang Non-public Offering, with a total subscription amount of 26.USD 857.6 billion, which together accounted for 5 of the equity of listed companies after the completion of this non-public offering.33%, trigger a placard line.  Different from the “crazy” that the insurance capital had listed in the market in 2016 and 2017, since this year the listed insurance companies have been listed in the leading insurance companies, and the small and medium insurance companies have chosen “storage for the winter”.  Since the beginning of this year, only China Life, Ping An of China, and China Pacific Insurance have listed 7 listed companies 9 times.Specifically, China Life Insurance listed Shenwan Hongyuan, China Guangdong Nuclear Power, CPIC, Wanda Information, among which Wanda Information was raised three times; Ping An Life held the China Huaxia Happiness, China Jinmao.Statistics show that during the year, the insurance capital placards cost more than 15 billion yuan.  PICC President Wang Hao said at the mid-year performance meeting that in the second half of the year, he will focus on long-term equity investments and fixed income investments in asset allocation.High dividends and undervalued stocks are also the 都市夜网 focus of insurance institutions.For listed companies that optimize the company’s investment structure and can integrate with insurance business, the company will also consider raising a brand.

Posted in tnpvsjom

Depth * Company * 璞 泰来 (603659): The first quarter profit is flat and the profitability has improved

The company released the first quarter report of 2019 and achieved profit1.

29 megabytes, basically flat for one year.

The company’s midstream platform strategy for lithium battery has achieved initial results, and maintains its overweight rating.

Key points to support rating The highest profit in the first quarter of 2019 was flat: the company released the first quarter report of 2019 and achieved operating income10.

29 ppm, an increase of 79 in ten years.

52%; realized profit 1.

29 ppm, an increase of 0 in ten years.


Replenishment volume has achieved high growth, and the gross profit margin has increased: The initial increase in operating income in the first quarter was the increase in the allocation of supplementary materials and alternative segmented processing business. The replacement of profit growth over revenue growth was the increase in the price of raw material needle coke.As well as increasing demand for fast-charging products, increasing the number and cost of carbonization processing has led to a decline in profitability, and the overall gross profit margin has gradually decreased10.

05 averages to 26.


The final material capacity is continuously released, and self-built graphitization reduces costs: the company is a domestic artificial graphite leader. As of the end of 2018, continuous material capacity 3 conversion, new 2 replacement continuous material capacity is expected to be released in 2019; the company stepped up supporting supporting graphitization capacity.The company’s Inner Mongolia Xingfeng 5 additive graphitization capacity is expected to be put into production in the second quarter of 2019. The self-built key processes overlap Inner Mongolia’s low electricity price advantage, which is expected to significantly reduce the cost of alternative materials.

Expanding the high growth of alternative scales and integrating the layout to improve profitability: The company’s restructuring business constrained strategic large customers such as CATL, benefited significantly from the high growth of 上海夜网论坛 industry demand and achieved rapid growth through scale.

The company has realized the integrated layout of base film-embedding material-inserting machine-inserting processing, which has significant synergy effects and is expected to improve the profitability of embedded business.

Lithium battery equipment is tied to major downstream customers and is committed to maintaining stable growth: domestic lithium battery leaders have started a second wave of production expansion, and the company has tied strategic large customers such as CATL and ATL to promote significant benefits.

While maintaining the leading edge in replacement equipment, the company has accelerated R & D expansion and market promotion in the field of lithium battery front-end dispersion, mixing and dividing and cutting equipment, and the lithium battery equipment business has promoted stable growth.

We estimate that the company’s estimated earnings for 2019-2021 will be 1.



58 yuan, corresponding to a market surplus of 30.



5 times, maintaining the overweight level.

The main risks facing the rating are that the demand for new energy vehicles is not up to expectations; the price competition is higher than expected; and the merger and acquisition business is not up to expectations.

Posted in dbuwgmab

Lianrui New Materials (688300): Leading semiconductors and 5G silicon micropowder industry usher in development opportunities
The leading domestic micronized silicon powder successfully broke the monopoly of high-end products and realized import substitution.The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of silicon micronized powder. Its main products include crystalline silicon micronized powder, molten silicon micronized powder and spherical silicon micronized powder. It currently has an angular silicon micron powder production capacity of 6 and spherical silicon micronized powder of 7,100 tons.The company’s silicon powder products have successfully replaced copper clad laminates, epoxy molding compounds, electrical insulation materials, and adhesives.The company successfully broke through the monopoly of spherical silicon powder in countries such as Japan, realized import substitution, and realized the application of products in key areas of 5G.At present, the company has cooperated with the world-class semiconductor molding compound manufacturers Sumitomo Electric, Hitachi Chemical, Panasonic, KCC Group, Warwick Electronics, the world’s top ten copper clad companies Jiantao Group, Shengyi Technology, South Asia Group, Lianmao Group, Jin AnguoJi, Tai Yao Technology, Korea Doosan Group and other companies have established cooperative relationships and become qualified material suppliers for these companies.  The accelerated expansion of domestic 5G and semiconductor production capacity has driven demand for upstream silicon powder.5G and the semiconductor industry have higher requirements for silicon powder, and the downstream demand for high-end products has increased. The rapid development of the downstream has put higher requirements on the quantity and quality of silicon powder.According to the company’s prospectus forecast, the industry market space will drive 68 from 2018.$ 7.5 billion will grow to $ 20.8 billion by 重庆桑拿 2025.As the industry leader, the company masters the core technology of high-end products and will continue to benefit from the downstream industry expansion and upgrade process.The company raised funds to build a new angular silicon micropowder3.65mm, spherical silicon powder 7200t, can effectively meet the increase in demand.Analysis of the company’s customer purchases can grind the downstream CCL purchases. The growth of the purchase amount of the downstream CCL will increase rapidly. In 2020, the downstream CCL leading companies will expand their production, which will increase the demand for silicon micronized powder. At the same time, it will shift to the launch of high-speed CCL production capacity.  The reserve products are initially heavy, and the downstream market space is being opened.With the further enhancement of 深圳桑拿网 the company’s research and development capabilities and the further development of the market, in response to the rising demand for thermal interface materials in applications such as automotive battery components and high-power electronic devices, a new product, alumina powder material, was introduced in a timely manner, and new products were quickly opened.Market.The company’s alumina powder sales revenue from 17 in 2016.62 million to 1,974 in 2018.930,000 yuan, alumina powder has gradually become a new driving force for the company’s revenue growth.  Investment Advice.The company’s listed and raised investment projects added a total of 36,500 tons of angular silicon powder and 7,200 tons of spherical silicon powder.It is expected that the production capacity will be fully released within three years after the start of production.Based on the company’s anticipated progress in capacity expansion and downstream customers’ expansion, we expect the company’s revenue to be 3 in 2019-2021.18/4.84/6.8.7 billion, with growth rates of 14.4%, 52.0%, 42.0%, net profit is 0.74/1.22/1.920,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.4%, 63.7%, 58.1%, EPS is 0.86/1.42/2.24 yuan, corresponding to PE is 65 X / 40 X / 25X.The first coverage was given a “Buy” rating.  Risk reminder: The new capacity is less than expected, and there is a risk of brain drain.

Posted in 夜生活