Month: April 2020
Zhongke Sanhuan (000970): Price increase of raw materials squeezes product profit, new energy permanent magnet demand breaks out
Event description: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019 and achieved operating income for the first half of the year18.
800 million, down 4 every year.
48%, net profit attributable to mothers was 10,000 yuan, a decrease of 10.
66%; of which, the company achieved revenue 9 in the second quarter.
600 million, down 6 every year.
09%, net profit attributable to mother 0.
56 ppm, a decrease of 19 per year.
Event Comment: Raw material prices have squeezed product profits, and new energy permanent magnet demand has exploded.
In the first half of the year, the company’s revenue and profits fell slightly for two main reasons: (1) the total demand for permanent products continued to increase, but the industry was still at the bottom of the demand inflection point, and competition in the traditional field has intensified.
We believe that with the global volume of new energy vehicles, the magnetic material industry will usher in an inflection point in demand.
We estimate that the proportion of magnetic materials for new energy vehicles in the world will reach 9% in 2019, and this stage can be compared with the cobalt-lithium market in 2015-2017.
The special exception is that the competitive landscape of the global permanent industry and internal resource monopoly advantages are more obvious.
In the process of cycle reversal, leading companies will take the lead to break through, enjoy the excess dividend of the industry reversal, and further expand their competitive advantage.
(2) Driven by national policies and the external environment, the prices of rare earths (rhodium, neodymium, praseodymium, and thorium) rose rapidly in the second quarter, while the order adjustment cycle was relatively lagging, temporarily reducing product profits.
We believe that in the second half of the year, the appreciation of rare earth stocks and product price adjustments will lead to improved corporate performance and the industry’s prosperity.
During the period, the expenses were 天津夜网 well controlled and the operating efficiency was gradually improved.
In the first half of the year, the company’s sales, management and financial expenses were zero.
5.8 billion, 1.
29 ppm, 0.
06 million yuan, maintained at the highest level overall, and operating efficiency has gradually improved.
With the smooth establishment of Tesla’s Shanghai plant in the future, the company as a core supplier of Tesla’s permanent magnetic materials will fully benefit.
Profit forecast and investment recommendations: The company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 is expected to be 2 respectively.
03 ppm; EPS is 0.
57 yuan, with a daily corresponding P / E of 39X, 27X, 17X on August 16, 2019, optimistic about the company’s future outbreak of new energy vehicle demand, advanced layout of advanced rail transportation equipment, and the application prospects of permanent magnet materials”Buy” rating.
Risk warning: weak macroeconomic growth, fluctuations in rare earth prices, new energy vehicle development is less than expected.
Comment on the recent situation of Lianhua Technology (002250)
Business situation: The company’s main industrial business is divided into three major sections: pesticides, pharmaceuticals and functional chemicals.In the first quarter of 2019, the company achieved revenue of 12.64 ppm, an increase of 27 in ten years.31%; net profit attributable to mothers1.52 ppm, an increase of 152 in ten years.89%.The substantial growth of the company’s performance was mainly due to the gradual resumption of production of its subsidiaries, Jiangsu Lianhua and Yancheng 失败:重查 Lianhua. The company’s pesticide business resumed growth, and its industrial business increased by 26 over the same period last year.77%. Domestic custom processing leader, strategic supplier of international giants.The company adopts contract development and processing outsourcing model (CDMO), and has a comprehensive chemical synthesis technology platform, which can provide one-stop customized production services for products in different life cycles.At present, the company has established strategic cooperative relations with multinational companies in the field of pesticides and pharmaceuticals. At the same time, its production and services have gone deep into the product development stage, and it has stocked more than 20 pesticide products and more than 50 pharmaceutical products. The pesticide business resumed growth and the pharmaceutical business developed rapidly.Multinational companies seeking customized enterprises to expand production bases are a major trend in the development of the industry. The transformation into Jiangsu Lianhua and Yancheng Lianhua will gradually resume production, and the company’s pesticide business will resume growth.In addition, the pharmaceutical projects that the company raised in 2015 will be put into production successively from 2018 to 2019. At the same time, 14 new pharmaceutical intermediate projects have obtained environmental assessment, and the company’s pharmaceutical business will usher in explosive growth. Technological innovation has obvious advantages, and the industry is leading in terms of production technology.The company has established a multi-level R & D platform, and its technology center was recognized as a national enterprise technology center in 2016. In addition, the company’s production technology level is leading in the industry. At present, the necessary cGMP and innovation / technical capabilities have been established. Both the Jiangkou factory and the British factory have passed FDA audits, and are capable of providing customers with one-stop service for development and manufacturing. Profit forecast: The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.48 yuan, 0.51 yuan, 0.61 yuan, corresponding to the current expected dynamic PE is 22 times, 21 times, 18 times, respectively, given an “overweight” rating. Risk analysis: The construction progress of the project is slow and the environmental protection ability is less than expected.
Bank of Changshu (601128): Intensive cultivation to create a small and micro moat
The county-level agricultural and commercial leader, and the expansion in different places led Changshu Bank to be restructured from the Changshu Rural Credit Cooperative Union. It is the first batch of joint-stock rural financial institutions in the country.The first bank to go out of the registered area to implement cross-regional operations, and the first bank to be approved for the establishment of an investment management village bank.
The company’s business is mainly concentrated in the province, but it is at the forefront of comparable peers in terms of expansion in other places. In 2018, the company’s proportion of regional revenue in provinces outside Changshu.
88%, operating profit accounted for 46.
63%, and the operating income of rural banks outside the province, operating profit ratio was 12 respectively.
Profitable for 10 years in the same industry, and the first to meet the turning point in 2018, Changshu Bank12.
62% of ROEs ranked second among listed rural commercial banks, 1.
The 01% ROA ranks first among all listed rural commercial banks, and it is also the only listed rural commercial bank above 1%.
From the historical sequence point of view, the company’s profit level was not outstanding before 2014, but after experiencing a profit decline in the interest rate marketization process from 2014 to 2015, its profit has gradually improved since 2016, and it has taken the lead to stand out from listed rural commercial banks.
From the perspective of DuPont analysis, the company’s ROA higher than comparable peers is mainly due to the contribution of interest margin and net fee and commission income. The contribution of interest margin is particularly prominent, and its advantages continue to expand in recent years. The main drag is from the comparativeHigh business and management fees and impairment losses.
The main business focuses on micro-loans, and the ultra-high interest margin of differentiated and competitive companies is mainly because the company’s general loan yield is far higher than that of its peers, which is derived from the business focus on “micro-loans” and has strong pricing power.
As of the end of 2018, the average bank loan size of Changshu Bank was only 36.
610,000 yuan, single-family loans 四川耍耍网 below 10 million loan proportion as high as 64.
27%, so whether it is retail or corporate loans, the level of yield ranks first among listed banks.
At the same time of having a high interest margin advantage, the company also well controlled the credit risk of small and micro businesses, and its asset quality was in a leading position among listed banks.
Headquarters, the company’s business is concentrated in Jiangsu Province, the geographical advantage of ownership; reduced, the company’s risk control system established from the three dimensions of personnel, systems and data is very complete, leading from the asset quality in the province, and leading several companies in southern JiangsuThis is evident from listed farmers.
Investment suggestion: optimistic about the long-term competitive advantages of differentiated operations. The company’s business has always focused on small and micro entities, bringing absolute high interest margin advantages. At the same time, the company has innovatively established a customer manager team, big data technology and a credit factory.The core business competitiveness of the differentiated business model, excellent asset quality, and guarantees stable and high growth performance; the existing company’s profitability is at the leading low position among listed rural commercial banks, and at the same time, it ushered in the ROE upward inflection point before comparable peers.Will continue to expand, so we are optimistic about the long-term competitive advantages of the company’s differentiated business model.
The outstanding deterioration of corporate profits affects the quality of bank assets; 2.
Financial regulations have become more stringent.
Experts: The optimistic that the social security fund will enter the market is expected to reach 6 trillion yuan within the year
Expert: Social security fund increased funds into the city optimistic is expected to reach 600 billion U.S. dollars. On July 10, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council convened an executive meeting of the State Council and decided to fully promote the transfer of some domestic capital to enrich the social security fund.
This means that the expansion of social security funds in developing countries will further accelerate.
According to data released on the official website of the National Social Security Fund Index on May 7, as of the end of 2018, the scale of fund assets managed by the Social Security Foundation reached 29632.
Regarding the investment of social security funds, Wang Ercheng, the secretary of the party group of the National Social Security Fund intervention party, wrote on May 22 that the cumulative investment income of the National Social Security Fund was 9,598 by the end of 2018.
5.5 billion yuan, with an average annual return on investment of 7.
In this regard, Yong Yongzu, deputy director of the Industrial Department of the Chongyang Institute of Finance of Renmin University of China, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that as a large institution, the investment situation of social security funds is very good. Since its establishment, it has gradually generated nearly one trillion US dollars, and almost all yearsBoth have received positive returns.
Liu Xiangdong, deputy researcher of the Economic Research Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that the existing annual rate of social security funds is still performing well, and it remains relatively large under the background of external uncertain risks overcome and economic downward pressure penetrating.The pressure on income growth is increasing. Therefore, the social security fund has adopted a variety of measures to 深圳桑拿网 achieve value appreciation on the basis of value preservation to ensure high profitability without replacement.
”But overall, the current profit of the social security fund remains higher than the benchmark interest rate, but there is still a gap with a growth rate of more than 10%. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the sound domestic investment channels to guide the social security fund to improve its profitability.
Liu Xiangdong said.
According to Wang Ercheng, from the perspective of fundraising channels, the existing social security fund assets have been transferred from the original single central budget allocation to the central government’s allocation of lottery public welfare funds, reduction of total shares, transfer of state-owned capital, and local entrusted investments.Diversified pattern.
In order to enhance the sustainability of social security funds, Wu Yongzu said that as a long-term investment fund, the main objective of social security fund investment is to maintain and increase value, and it will pursue a long-term and stable investment style.Industry or stock.
From Liu Xiangdong’s point of view, the future investment direction of the social security fund will be more market-oriented and diversified, and higher returns should be achieved while avoiding risks. This requires opportunities in this area for external investment channels, so the development of the stock market is very importantIf the stock market develops healthily, it is expected that the funds invested by the social security fund in the stock market will increase more.
So how much space does the social security fund have in the market?
Yongzu said that from the perspective of the country, there is still a lot of room for the increase in the entry of social security funds. The total accumulated balance of some retirement pensions has reached 5 trillion, but most of them are placed in banks to earn interest and recoverThe speed at which pensions are invested in the stock market is accelerating. It is expected that the incremental funding for social security funds entering the market this year will exceed 600 billion yuan.
Zhejiang Longsheng (600352): The price of dyes in the third quarter of 2019 decreased month-on-month, a significant increase in sales
The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters of 201938.
82 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.
The company announced that it achieved revenue of 166 in the first three quarters of 2019.
23 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.
11%; net profit attributable to mother 38.
82 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.
13%; EPS1 achieved.
22 yuan / share.
Among them, 3Q2019 achieved revenue of 69.
74 ppm, a 10-year increase of 29.
17%; net profit attributable to mother 13.
51 ppm, a 10-year increase2.
Sales of dyes declined in the first three quarters of 2019, but sales in 3Q2019 picked up significantly.
According to the report average, the company sold a total of 16 dyes in the first three quarters of 2019.
5 in the beginning, compared with 18 in the same period last year.
7 Initial average 11.
From the single quarter data, the company sold dyes in the third quarter of 2019.
4 Maximum limit, ten-year average.
48%, but 4 in 2Q2019.
4 Expected substantial sales growth 46.
With the average of the report, the company’s auxiliary and intermediate sales in the first three quarters of 2019 were 5 respectively.
5 minimum and 8 interest rates, at least slightly increased by 3.
16% and formaldehyde 3.
3Q2019 dye prices have fallen.
According to the price data of Zhuochuang Information we tracked, the average price of the company’s main product disperse dyes in the first three quarters of 2019 was 41 yuan / kg, an increase of 8 yuan from 37 yuan per thousand degrees in the same period of 武汉夜网论坛 the previous year.
63%; the previous average price of reactive dyes was 30 yuan / month, an increase of 3 over the same period last year.
From the single quarter data, the average price of disperse dyes in the third quarter of 2019 was 38 yuan / kg, and the 44 yuan / carboxy ring ratio in the second quarter of 2019 was 12.
7%; the average price of reactive dyes in the third quarter of 2019 during the same period was 29 yuan / kg, compared with the previous month’s oxide 7 in the second quarter of 2019.
The third quarter of 2019 gross profit ratio molecular weight.
Affected by the decline in dye prices, the company’s consolidated gross margin in the third quarter of 2019 was 34.
1%, compared with 48 in the same period last year.
58% decline by 14 every year.
48 singles; 49 in the second quarter of 2019.
64% month-on-month decrease of 15.
The average value of the report is that the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2019 was 41.
58%, a slight decrease from the same period last year4.
Profit forecast and estimation.
We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 1.
71 yuan / share, combined with comparable company estimates, carefully consider 9-11 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 14.
27 yuan, maintaining the sustainable market rating.
Dye prices fell; resorcinol prices fell; real estate project development was lower than expected.
Perfect World (002624): Client game veteran player
Global gaming continues to grow, and mobile trends continue. Newzoo data shows that the global gaming industry market capacity in 2018 was $ 137.8 billion, and it is predicted that the global gaming industry market capacity will grow to $ 196 billion by 2022, corresponding to the compound advantage from 2018 to 2022.Is 7.
The trend of mobile gaming 杭州桑拿网 industry continues.
Newzoo predicts that the composite capacity of the global mobile gaming and non-mobile gaming markets from 2019 to 2022 will be 11 respectively.
67% and 6.
70%, comprehensively driving the global gaming industry market capacity from US $ 152.1 billion in 2019 to US $ 196 billion in 2022, corresponding to a composite strength of market capacity from 2019 to 2022 of 8.
The power of IP (worldview and art story)-Players quickly bring in, especially important for mobile games. The four major elements of the game are: game mechanics, implementation technology, worldview and art story, game mechanics and implementation technology. It is difficult to make a big breakthroughYes, and with different worldviews and art stories, a new game can be spawned immediately.
Good IP can quickly bring players in. This is the reason why IP is popular. It is simpler for mobile games because the life cycle is relatively short.
For an IP, the key is to be able to capture the core user group. The creation of IP is a long-term accumulation process. What investors need to scale is the user that IP brings to the game and the IP payment.
Perfect World is a world leader in client games with a rich IP reserve (002624.
SZ) is a large-scale video game complex in China. Its business covers two segments, Perfect World Games and Perfect World Film and Television.
In 2005, 2006, and 2007, the company successively launched self-developed phenomenal-level end-games “Perfect World”, “Xunxian”, “Wulin Waizhuan”, etc., “Perfect World” is sold overseas.
In 2012, the mobile game market rose, and the company began to lay out the mobile game business. In 2013, it launched a number of high-quality mobile games, and the proportion of mobile game revenue gradually increased.
The company has gradually formed a three-pronged situation centered on the original IP “Perfect World”, the classic web text IP “Xianxian”, and the original IP “Dream Collection”, which is also accompanied by rich Jin Yong IP and film and television IP.
Investment advice We give “buy” investment advice: based on Perfect World (1) the significant leadership position of client games, these advantages can be implanted in mobile games; (2) rich IP reserves, complete categories, and diverse monetization models.
We predict that the 无锡夜网 company’s operating income in 2019, 2020 and 2021 will be 8 billion, 9.7 billion and 10.9 billion US dollars respectively, with annual growth rates of 0%, 21% and 12%; net profit attributable to mothers will be 15 million US dollars, 23 million US dollars and 26 million US dollars, with annual growth rates of -5%, 57% and 9%, respectively.
Risks suggest that game development or product flow is less than expected.
Yinlun Stock (002126) In-depth Tracking Series (2)-Opening New Space from Traditional to New Energy Thermal Management
The company is a leader in automotive thermal management. Following the wave of automotive electrification, its business has expanded from traditional thermal management to new energy thermal management.Since 2016, new energy thermal management products have begun mass production. Current products include water pumps, cooling plates, PTC heaters, heat exchangers, heat pump air conditioners, etc. Major customers include BYD, GAC, Geely, Ningde Times and overseas Volvo, DaiMueller et al.The market for new energy thermal management is large, and the company has obtained many orders. It is expected to open up the company’s growth space in the future.Continue to focus on recommendation and maintain “Buy” rating. The company is a leader in automotive thermal management and exhaust treatment, following the wave of automotive electrification.The company is a leader in the field of automotive heat exchange. Since 2016, the company’s new energy thermal management products have begun mass production. The current products include water pumps, cooling plates, PTC heaters, heat exchangers, heat pump air conditioners, etc. The main customers include BYD, GAC, Geely, Ningde era and overseas Volvo, Daimler, etc. The global electric vehicle thermal management industry space is expected to reach $ 60 billion by 2025.We estimate that the global thermal management market for electric passenger cars will reach 170 trillion in 2020, of which about 7.5 billion in China and about 9.5 billion overseas.Driven by the rapid growth of downstream electric vehicle demand in the next five years and the increase in the average bicycle value (such as: heat pump air conditioners replacing PTC heating air conditioners, etc.), the global electric passenger vehicle thermal management market is expected to reach 60 billion in 2025, CAGR + 30%. The company’s new energy thermal management has continued to expand overseas customers, and has achieved preliminary demonstration.Domestic customers of the company’s new energy thermal management include BYD, GAC Auto, Geely, Changan Ford, JMC New Energy, some new car building forces, and battery company Ningde Times.Geely has already obtained orders for Geely’s PMA platform heat exchange assembly and Volvo SPA2 platform cooling module. On January 19, 2020, the company announced that it had won the GMA and Daimler joint venture PMA-2 platform heat pump air conditioner package.The company has successively entered the supply chain of Geely PMA, Volvo SPA, and Daimler Intelligent Vehicles. We expect that it will gradually and actively “exemplify the role” in opening up new customers in the future. New energy thermal management orders in hand exceed 5 billion yuan, and it is estimated that annual revenue contribution from 2022 will exceed 1 billion yuan.We combed the company’s announcement of new energy thermal management orders in detail. It is estimated that the total orders in hand will exceed 5 billion, and it will accelerate the release from 2021.Among them, we expect the company’s new energy thermal management revenue in 2019/2020/20212.5/4.5/6.500 million US dollars, accounting for 5% / 7% / 9% of revenue; annual revenue after 2022 will exceed 1 billion US dollars, and the proportion of revenue will exceed 10%, which will drive the company’s overall growth and further increase the company’s scale. Risk factors: The sales of major 淡水桑拿网 downstream passenger car customers are not up to expectations; new product development is not up to expectations; fluctuations in raw material prices. Investment suggestion: In the short term, it is expected that the company’s passenger car business will stabilize and the exhaust aftertreatment EGR business will break out.In the medium and long term, it is expected that the company’s new energy thermal management business will benefit from the increase in downstream demand and continue to obtain new orders. The company itself will also continue to be competitive through product transformation.At the same time, Yinlun Co., Ltd. is actively expanding its global business and will enjoy global replacement dividends for a long time.The recent repurchase also shows confidence.Maintain 2019-2021 net profit return to mothers3.23/3.86/4.83 ppm, currently corresponding to PE 23/19/15 times.In general, we are very optimistic about the company’s growth. The current valuation corresponds to 19 times PE in 2020 and 25 times PE in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 12.00 yuan, key recommendation, maintain “Buy” rating.
Zhejiang Longsheng (600352): High growth results in line with expectations Operating cash flow continued to improve
The company released the first quarter report of 2019: the report consolidated and the company realized operating income of 47.
710,000 yuan (+12 compared with the same period last year).
8%, QoQ + 5.
8%), net profit attributable to mother 12.
6.2 billion (+ 62% year-on-year.
5%, quarter-on-quarter +35.
3%), after deducting non-return to net profit of mother 9.
4.8 billion (+ 24% year-on-year.
0%, quarterly +50.
9%), the performance was in line with expectations.
The price of dyes and intermediates rose, and the performance was higher than the previous month.
Since the environmental protection inspection of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions in 2017, the dye industry has continued to improve the supply and demand pattern, especially at the end of April 2018. Due to the stealing of emissions in the northern Jiangsu Chemical Park, enterprises in the park have been shut down, the supply side has further contracted, and the product price has risen.2019Q1 remained high and volatile.
According to the operating data disclosed by the company, the average price of domestic disperse dyes for each quarter (excluding tax) is 4.
0 million / ton fluctuations, reactive dyes at 3.
0,000 / ton fluctuated.
Dystar’s decentralized, density blue and other product prices increased seasonally. Dystar’s decentralized price continued to increase from less than 100,000 / ton in 2018Q1 to about 140,000 / ton in 2019Q1.Nearly 100,000 / ton in 2019Q1.
Reporting intermediates, the company’s dyes operating income 28.
10,000 yuan (+18 compared with the same period last year).
6%, +8 in the fourth quarter.
3%), sales of 5.
75 Statutory (+7 year-on-year.
1%, +5 from the previous quarter.
1%), average price 4.
RMB 870,000 / ton (+10 compared with the same period last year).
7% quarter-on-quarter, +3.
Intermediate resorcinol average price of about 60,000 / ton in 2018Q1, about 80,000 / ton in 2019Q1, operating income of intermediate business10.
7.6 billion (+ 34% YoY).
2% quarter-on-quarter +23.
5%), sales 2.
78 expected (YoY -4.
9%), average price 3.
87 tons / ton (+40 compared with the same period last year).
2%, +7 from the previous quarter.
The company’s 2019Q1 sales gross margin was 44.
3%, an increase of about 1 a year.6 pct, an increase of about 0 from the previous month.
According to the reported baseline, construction in progress increased by 2 compared with the end of 2018.
US $ 9.5 billion, mainly due to increased investment in H acid projects with an annual output of 2, clean production and environmental protection integration projects, and reactive dyes and hollow relocation projects.
Amount of operating cash flow 10.
2 trillion, -5 compared to the same period last year.
The US $ 3.7 billion was substantially positive and continued to improve in the single quarter, mainly because the substantial investment phase had ended.
The Tianjiayi accident caused the supply to shrink again, and the sharp rise in product prices helped the company’s 19-year performance to a new level.
Affected by the “321” Xiangshui Tianjiayi explosion accident in 2019, Tianjiayi’s production capacity of about 1 m-phenylenediamine was withdrawn, accounting for about 20% of the domestic market. At the same time, the Xiangshui Park and its surrounding coastal areas, Guanyun, and Guannan Parks were suspendedRemediation and safety inspections have been launched in various provinces and cities across the country.
At present, the supply of the m-phenylenediamine industry is tight, and the supply of dyes has contracted again, resulting in a sharp rise in product prices.
The market price 北京桑拿洗浴保健 of m-phenylenediamine has changed from about 4 before the explosion.
From 50,000 / ton to more than 100,000 / ton, the market price of disperse dyes increased from about 40,000 / ton to 70,000 / ton.
Benefiting from the substantial increase in product prices, the company’s 19Q2 performance is expected to explode again, boosting a new high in 19 years.
The supply and demand pattern has been continuously optimized to promote the upward movement of dyes and intermediate prices, and the company’s real estate business has progressed smoothly.
Due to the “321” accident in northern Jiangsu, the rectification of the park has been strengthened again. In the future, there will be a large number of non-compliant BMs to accelerate the shutdown and elimination. The supply and demand of dyes and intermediate industries will continue to be optimized.Further enhancement.
In addition, the company’s real estate project is progressing smoothly. The Huangshan Road project is expected to complete remittance this year. The Datong Road project is expected to be pre-sold in 2020. The Huaxing New Town project is expected to start construction at the end of the year.
Investment suggestion: Maintain “overweight” rating and maintain profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit of the mother will be 59 in 2019-21.
910,000 yuan, corresponding to EPS 1.
96 yuan, PE 11X, 10X, 10X.
Risk Warning: Dyes and Intermediate Prices Fall, Real Estate Business Is Less Than Expected
Fuanna (002327): Return on capital and dividend income for continuous home textile industry
Performance review 2018 results are in line with expectations Fu Ana’s 2018 results announced: Revenue 29.
180,000 yuan, an increase of 11 in ten years.
6%; net profit 5.
43 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.
1%, corresponding to a profit of 0.
62 yuan; deducting non-net profit increases by 6.
Performance is in line with expectations.
Single-quarter revenue in the fourth quarter of 2018 increased by 7.
2%, net profit fell slightly to 0.
1%, mainly due to the gradual adjustment of the hypertension tax rate and the streamlining of the home business team.
Final dividend payout 0.
5 yuan, dividend yield of 5.
As of the end of December, the company’s offline channel stores and counters totaled approximately 1,310, and the number of franchised stores and counters increased by 129, with revenue accounting for 35%.
According to the location of the stores, the proportion of channels in first- and second-tier cities has reached 53%, and the proportion of street stores and mall counters are 60% and 40%. At the same time, 武汉夜网论坛 the company adheres to the strategy of large stores.50%.
The company’s online sales growth rate increased by 16% and accounted for 29% of the group’s revenue. Tmall’s “Double Eleven” ranked second among home textile brands, that is, the growth rate ranked first.
The home furnishing business is oriented towards personalized light luxury art finished home furnishings. From the beginning of 2017 to the end of 2018, there were 12 US flagship stores (not expanded in the second half of the year), with a total store area of 13,000 square meters.
In terms of volume and price, the company’s ten-year revenue growth was mainly contributed by volume growth of 11%.
Financial Review: Long-term gross margin increased by 0.
5ppt to 48.
Selling and administrative expenses ratio increased by 1.
8ppt to 29.
1%, mainly due to store 四川耍耍网 upgrades, expansion and expansion and compensation for increased sales costs increased by 21% each year.
Cash flow from operating activities decreased slightly by 6%, and working capital turnover remained stable.
The company’s ROE remains at 16.
2% of the home textile industry is relatively high.
Development Trend According to the company’s merchandise plan in the second half of 2018, the company will focus on reducing inventory, shrinking cycles, adjusting structure and further optimizing the commodity supply chain in 2019.
During the year, the company plans to add approximately 170 franchised and directly operated stores and counters.
Earnings forecast remains unchanged from 2019 and 2020 earnings forecasts.
71 yuan, 0.
78 yuan is unchanged, corresponding to an annual increase of 14.
It is estimated and recommended that the company currently corresponds to 2019 and December 2020.
3 times, 12 times P / E.
We maintain a neutral rating, but considering that the company currently has high ROE and high dividend payouts that are scarce in the home textile sector, we raise our target price by 17% to 9.
93 yuan, corresponding to 14 times the price-earnings ratio in 2019, compared with current expectations of 5.
The risk inventory is high, and the advancement of the household channel fails to meet expected risks.
Kanghong Pharmaceutical (002773): Compaq Rapid Growth in Traditional Chinese Medicine Sales Stabilizes
Performance summary: The company achieved operating income in the first half of 201915.
2 ppm, an increase of 9 per year.
8%; net profit attributable to mother 3.
4 ‰, an increase of 9 in ten years.
7%; realized non-net profit deduction of 3.
20,000 yuan, an increase of 18 in ten years.
The overall performance was in line with expectations, and sales of traditional Chinese medicines stabilized.
1) From the perspective of product structure: In 2019H1, the company’s proprietary Chinese medicines achieved revenue of 400 million U.S. dollars, an increase of 1 year by year.
5%; income from chemical medicines is 5.
6 ppm, an increase of ten years.
8%; biological products achieve income 5.
60,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.
8%; 2) From a single quarter point of view: the 10-year growth rate of the company’s Q1 / Q2 in 2019 was 2 respectively.
4% / 17.
3%, the annual growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers is 2 respectively.
4% / 24%. The significant increase in the single quarter was mainly due to the significant increase in net profit margin of biopharmaceuticals, while the sales of traditional Chinese medicines stabilized; 3) From the perspective of sales regions: East China sales revenue4.
80,000 yuan, an annual increase of 25.
7%, accounting for 31% of operating income.
9%, which is said to be mainly due to the increase in patient’s ability to pay for Compaq’s sales.
Compaq’s rapid growth has broad potential for new approvals.
1) Compaq Rapid Growth: In 2019H1, Compaq Ship realized sales revenue5.
60,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.
8%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 1.
7.3 billion, an increase of 62 in ten years.
The net interest rate was 24% from the same period last year.
1% to 30.
9%, a significant scale effect; 2) The scope of newly approved indications is broad: In May 2019, Compaq’s ophthalmic injection was approved for the third indication “Treatment of vision caused by diabetic macular edema (DME)Damage “, this indication is expected to be reached through this round of medical insurance 北京夜生活网 negotiations, and the potential volume of about 4 million patients can be expected.
During the period, expenses were well controlled and gross profit margin was basically flat.
1) In terms of period expenses: the three expense ratios total approximately 67.
2%, slightly down 1.
1pp, of which the cost of sales costs 50.
2%, down 3.
5pp; administrative expenses 18%, up 1.
8pp; financial expenses are 14.78 million yuan, a decrease of about 33 each year.
1%, mainly due to the decrease in interest income during the current period; 2) In terms of gross profit margin: the gross profit margin for 2019H1 is 92.
4%, basically the same as the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in gross profit margin of biological products and the traditional Chinese medicine gross profit margin basically offset.
The core treatment areas are in-depth layout, and many new drugs enter the late clinical stage.KH906 eye drops are mainly used to treat trauma, chemical burns, corneal transplantation-induced neovascularization, and patients have been enrolled for phase 1 treatment. KH903, mainly used to treat colorectal cancer and other organ tumors, has beenEntered clinical phase 2; KH901, a therapeutic tumor vaccine, is currently in clinical phase 2; KH110 has obtained clinical approval.
Profit forecast and rating.
It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 will be 8 respectively.
500 million, 10.
400 million, 13.
20,000 yuan (referring to the sales of the interim report, slightly reducing the profit forecast, the original forecast was 9.
7 ppm), corresponding to the current market value of 32.5 billion, PE is 38 times, 31 times, 25 times respectively, optimistic about the company’s DMP indications to gradually replace the current round of medical insurance negotiations, to achieve a price premium to maintain “overweight”grade.
Risk reminder: the risk that the core product may continue to fall in price, the sales volume may not be as expected, the risk of research and development progress or expected.